BCA Indicators/Model
MacroQuant’s US equity z-score is dangerously close to the -1 threshold. Moves below that threshold have reliably coincided with equity bear markets in the past. As such, MacroQuant recommends an underweight on stocks, offset by an overweight on bonds and cash.
In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies.
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio underperformed its benchmark through May, returning 5.1%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned 6.1%. On a trailing three-month basis, performance is also slightly weaker vs. benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 130bps. Notably, volatility and drawdown remain lower than the SPY, aiding risk-adjusted performance.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2025.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
MacroQuant warns that US equities are pricing in very little economic risk. The model is shunning equities and recommends a large overweight to cash.
Are bond yields overextended? We introduce a new global technical indicator that helps spot mean-reversion opportunities and shows which markets are nearing exhaustion.