Consumer
Financial conditions tightened meaningfully in the first three quarters of 2022 as market participants anticipated an aggressive monetary tightening cycle. However, this tightening phase ended in late-2022. Indeed, economic conditions have been resilient this…
The Conference Board’s Consumer Survey results delivered a negative signal about the US consumption outlook on Tuesday. Although the present situation component inched up marginally in September, a 9.6-point drop in the expectations component to 73.7 drove…
On the surface, US housing market data is sending conflicting signals. On the one hand, both the FHFA as well as the S&P CoreLogic gauges of US house prices surprised to the upside in July and are now expanding on both a month-over-month and…
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service estimates that China’s oil demand growth will decline from 12% year-on-year in the past eight months to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. China’s crude oil imports and domestic consumption…
China’s oil demand growth will moderate to a still robust 4%-6% in the next six-to-nine months. We recommend that investors in China’s onshore and offshore stock indexes overweight energy producers.
Bulls and bears have capitulated, and the majority of the clients surveyed expect a rangebound market in the near term. Our fair value PE NTM indicates that the S&P 500 is only modestly overvalued. The continued outperformance of the Magnificent Seven faces multiple hurdles. Meanwhile, fiscal spending is unlikely to create an impetus for another leg up in equity performance.
Thursday’s release of US weekly jobless claims and continuing claims delivered a positive surprise about labor market conditions. The decline in initial jobless claims to an eight-month low of 201 thousand came in below expectations of an increase from 221…
According to BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service, the 2006/07 roadmap remains a good one for bond investors. The Fed held the funds rate steady this afternoon and made no material changes to its policy statement. That said, meeting participants did…
After a steady rebound in the first half of the year, the US NAHB Housing Market Index’s 5-point decline to 45 in September was a disappointment to consensus estimates of a 1-point decrease. It marks the second consecutive deterioration and brought down the…
The US CPI release showed monthly inflation accelerated in August. While the increase in headline inflation from 0.2% m/m to 0.6% m/m was in line with consensus estimates, the core index’s 0.3% m/m rise came in slightly above expectations it would remain…