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Currencies

Antipodean Currencies In The Lead In April
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service, the improvement in global economic data will put some upward pressure on yields while pressuring the dollar lower (as a counter-cyclical currency). When it becomes more evident that the cracks…
Daily Insights
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Month-In-Review: What We Learned In The Last Month

In this report, we review our trade recommendations based on incoming data in the last month.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Deborah Acri, Chester Ntonifor, Artem Sakhbiev
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Bank Of England Inches Toward Rate Cuts

An update to our views on UK rates and currency following today’s Bank of England meeting.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor
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Mexico: Buy On Election Dips
Special Report

Mexico’s election and the US election pose short-term and potentially medium-term risks to Mexican financial assets. But unless the ruling party wins a double supermajority, we remain structurally overweight Mexico relative to global stocks excluding the United States.

Geopolitical Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken
The Riksbank Eases Policy
In a widely expected move, the Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points on Wednesday from 4% to 3.75%. The policy statement highlighted that inflation is approaching its 2% target, that leading indicators are pointing to further downside in prices and…
Daily Insights
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Memories Of 2001

Why the US could get a jobs recession without a GDP recession, as happened in 2001, and what it means for stocks and bonds. Plus, an update on the Joshi rule.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
European Retail Sales Surprise To The Upside
European retail sales were stronger-than-expected in March. They grew by 0.7% y/y from an upwardly revised 0.5% contraction in February, upending expectations that they would continue to decline. Improved sales in food products were the main drivers,…
Daily Insights
Better Data Could Boost EUR/USD In The Short-Term
The cyclical outlook is gloomy for EUR/USD. We subscribe to neither the soft-landing nor the no-landing view and expect a recession to occur in late 2024/early 2025. The pro-cyclical euro would suffer in a global downturn while a recession would support the…
Daily Insights
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A Conversation With Ms. Mea: Distinguishing The Signal From The Noise

Mainland residents’ investments in gold, other metals, and Hong Kong-traded stocks are a form of capital outflow. Chinese authorities will counter any excessive capital flight with stricter administrative controls. Thus, markets benefiting from these flows will likely be hurt.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
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Not As Hawkish As Feared

Updated views on US Treasury yields and the dollar following today’s FOMC meeting.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Ryan Swift, Chester Ntonifor

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