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Developed Countries

European Aerospace And Defense Stocks Are Hot
European aerospace and defense stocks are on the offense. Year-to-date, they are up 20% in absolute terms and 24% relative to their US counterparts, both in US dollar terms. The relative 12-month forward earnings suggest that this outperformance still has…
Daily Insights
Credit Cycle Checkup
Special Report

This week’s Special Report updates our US default rate forecast and considers whether corporate bond spreads offer value given the trend in credit fundamentals. We also consider the relative value proposition between investment grade and high-yield credit and between European and US corporate bonds.

US Bond Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Ryan Swift
Hit, Miss, Moving Forward

Momentum, high cash balances, FOMO, and expectations of soft landing drive the market higher. This rally may continue for a while, but macroeconomic headwinds are intensifying and will eventually derail the rally. It is too early to celebrate victory.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
So Much For Détente?
Special Report

Talks of a détente are premature and there is no domestic political basis in China or the US to support a true détente. Investors should not underappreciate global risk, on the basis of a détente, and should avoid Greater China equities in the next 18 months.

Geopolitical Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Matt Gertken
Recession Delayed, But Not Denied
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator continues to warn about the economic outlook. The month-on-month rate of change and the six-month rate of change showed the index declining at a faster pace. Weaker consumer expectations for business…
Daily Insights
The BoE Returns To Outsized Rate Hikes
The Bank of England surprised markets with a larger-than-anticipated 50bps rate hike on Thursday, raising its policy rate to 5% versus expectations of 4.75%. Seven of the nine MPC members voted in favor of the rate increase. In particular, the rate hike is…
Daily Insights
On The Resilience Of DM Energy Stocks
Oil Prices have gone through a dramatic boom bust cycle over the past 18 months. After rising almost 80% in the first quarter of 2022 following the war in Ukraine, Brent has fallen all the way back towards $70/bbl – where it was at the start of last year. …
Daily Insights
Bond Market Positioning Is Very Bullish
BCA Research’s US Bond Strategy service recommends investors maintain above-benchmark portfolio duration. However, the team is monitoring bond positioning as a potential catalyst that could push yields higher. JP Morgan’s Treasury Investor Sentiment Survey…
Daily Insights
Canada’s Policy Rate Is Not Sufficiently Restrictive
Recent economic data reveal that Canadian household conditions remain resilient. Retail sales surprised to the upside in April. The 1.1% m/m increase follows two consecutive monthly declines and beat expectations of a 0.4% m/m rise. Similarly, the Bank of…
Daily Insights
Risky Asset Prices, A Looming Recession, And The Japanese Yen
The Japanese yen is typically a counter-cyclical currency. As shown in the chart above, the correlation between global stock prices and the yen is usually negative. However, over the past year, the yen’s correlation with risky asset prices has shifted…
Daily Insights

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AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics