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Developed Countries

After a powerful 40% rally from the March 2020 lows, AUD/JPY peaked in September 2022 and has been consolidating those gains in bearish trading pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Although the cross is up 4.5% from the March bottom this year, the rally has…
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, AI’s progression is following an exponential curve, not a linear one, meaning that advances could come much faster than expected. If humanity survives the transition to superintelligent AI,…
As expected, the Bank of England raised its bank rate by 25bps to 4.5% on Thursday, marking the 12th consecutive rise. Notably the updated projections show a significant improvement in the economic outlook. The upwards growth revisions reflect falling energy…
Our colleagues in BCA’s Commodity & Energy Service believe the US banking crisis is part and parcel of the fallout from the Fed’s shift to aggressive policy tightening undertaken last year when it realized inflation was not transitory.  The…
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, on a timeframe of two years, investors should shock-proof their portfolios by holding some combination of cheap insurance assets. All shocks end up with both deflationary and inflationary components: either…

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

The change in the BoE’s tone has likely altered the path for sterling. In this report, we explore if the BoE’s lens for monetary policy is justified, and provide some targets for the pound.

The crisis hitting regional and local banks in the US is adding to oil-price volatility and gold demand. The crisis arguably is fallout from the Fed’s aggressive monetary policy tightening, and contributes to the upending economic relationships that reliably informed policy, investments and forecasts in the past. This feeds into higher price volatility, which reduces liquidity in the short run, and impedes capex in the long run, which limits future supply growth.

As expected, annual core CPI inflation slowed from 5.6% y/y to 5.5% y/y in April. Meanwhile, the month-on-month figure was broadly unchanged at 0.4% m/m. A look at the details of the report through the lens of the Fed’s breakdown of core inflation into core…
Workers who switch jobs typically experience faster wage growth than those who do not change jobs. Data from the Atlanta Fed’s wage growth tracker shows that the GFC is the only period on record of faster wage growth for Job Stayers than Job Switchers. The…