Developed Countries
According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, stronger global growth and a narrowing of interest rate differentials between the US and the rest of the world explain why the US dollar has weakened since last October. They expect the greenback…
The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 1.2% m/m in March. The March update – which came in below consensus estimates of a 0.7% m/m decrease – marks its 12th consecutive drop. The weakness was broad-based across the index’s components with…
On the surface, results from the Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey sent a deeply negative signal about the US manufacturing sector. The headline Business Outlook Index lost 8.1 points in April and at -31.3 it is now at its lowest since May 2020. …
We are increasing our gold price target to $2,200/oz, given the increasing risk of fiscal dominance in the US, rising geopolitical risk, the return of trading blocs and currency debasement risk. These risks also will increase economic uncertainty, which also will be bullish for gold.
The dollar has entered a structural bear market. Although the greenback could get a temporary reprieve during the next recession, investors should position for a weaker dollar over the long haul.
UK inflation came in hotter-than-anticipated in March. Headline inflation remained in double digits at 10.1% y/y, above expectations that it would recede from 10.4% y/y to 9.8% y/y. Similarly, the core index was unchanged at 6.2% y/y, disappointing consensus…
Like most other risk assets, US high-yield corporate bonds sold off in March during the banking turmoil in the US and Europe. The overall Bloomberg US high-yield index spread rose from a low of 389bps on March 6, just before the news on the funding problems…
The Fed’s Beige Book suggests that the slight increase in US economic activity earlier this year is fading. The number of districts reporting modest growth fell to three from six in the February release. Moreover, two of the 12 districts expect a…
The Q1-2023 US earnings season started last Friday. As companies report, we will gauge the effects of the Fed’s monetary campaign on corporate profitability. With inflation declining, and demand faltering, sales growth is key. According to Factset,…
According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service investors and regulators would be foolishly complacent if they didn’t consider the possibility that the banking turmoil could reduce credit availability and slow economic activity, but the most recent…