Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Economic Growth

F_IMAGE_20240812_180042.PNG
China's Signals Amid The US Election
Special Report

China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-China détente will come later rather than sooner.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken
Markets Are Also Sniffing Out Trouble
Regular readers are familiar with our expectation that the stabilization in global growth this year will be fleeting. The US has been the main source of demand in this cycle. We view the latest string of US employment data as further evidence the US…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240809_164619.PNG
The Carry Trade Blowup Is Only The Start

The unwind of yen carry trades caused violent tremors across the globe. Was this shock a one-off event or the prelude to more troubles?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Investors Sour On The Eurozone
After briefly breaking a 27-month streak of negative sentiment back in June, the Eurozone Sentix Economic index disappointed in August. The overall index worsened from July’s negative reading to -13.9, below expectations of a milder deterioration. The…
Daily Insights
Consumers Grow Pessimistic About Main Street But Not Wall Street
The latest Conference Board measure of consumer confidence suggested that consumers were increasingly downbeat about current economic conditions. Notably, their fading optimism about labor market conditions drove the jobs-plentiful-minus-hard-to-get measure…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240731_171156.PNG
Monthly Portfolio Update: Slowdown Story Remains Intact

The market is pricing in a soft landing, but we see growing signs that the global economy is faltering. Investors should be defensively positioned.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
The Euro Area Economy Is Vulnerable
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, a foreign shock is likely to tip the Eurozone economy into a recession because important vulnerabilities have emerged domestically. Policy is restrictive. Real interest rates stand 370bps…
Daily Insights
f_image_20240726_153501.PNG
Will The ECB Save The Day?

Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20240726_182616.PNG
Tea Leaves From Bond And FX Market Indicators

This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Mid-Cap Banks Dodge Another CRE Bullet
Equity investors have been skittish about mid-cap banks ever since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023. The S&P MidCap 400 Regional Banks Index remains 4% below its February 2023 high while the S&P 500 Diversified Banks Index, dominated by the…
Daily Insights

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics