Economy
In Section I, Doug explains how the sharp upward revision to second-quarter consumption in the final GDP estimate has reduced our recession conviction and could lead us to abandon our recession call altogether. The situation is fluid, though, as typified by the striking weakness of stocks in consumer-facing and cyclically exposed subindustries. In Section II, Doug and Global Investment Strategy’s Miroslav Aradski consider the implications of the AI investment boom.
The Fed cut rates today, but a follow-up rate cut in December is uncertain. It will depend, in large part, on who wins a debate about the neutral rate of interest.
This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets.
US inflation data continue to show no signs of price pressures beyond a near-term tariff effect.
The Fed is poised to deliver a 25-basis-point rate cut this month, but a follow-up rate cut in December will depend on how the divergence between strong consumer spending and weak employment growth is resolved.
