Economy

Will US Homebuilders Continue Outperforming?

US homebuilder sentiment has been consistently recovering since the beginning of the year. The results of the March NAHB survey show an unexpected 2-point increase in the Housing Market Index which is now at its highest since September. The latest…

3 years ago

Essentials

The US Has Passed Two Staging Posts To Recession

According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is more imminent than most economists anticipate. Exactly one year ago today, the US Federal Reserve embarked on the most…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Goldilocks: Possible But Improbable

The odds of achieving a goldilocks scenario in the US where inflation drops amidst robust growth are low. If US bank woes do not escalate, the Fed will continue hiking amid a contraction in US corporate profits and global trade. The recovery in China’s industrial economy will disappoint. Commodity prices are breaking down.

3 years ago

Emerging Markets

CoreMacro

How The ‘Most Anticipated Recession’ Is Still Unanticipated

Bank failures are another ‘canary in the coal mine’ warning that a US recession is imminent, yet stocks, bonds, and the oil price are still a long way from fully pricing it.

3 years ago

Essentials

The Fed Can’t Afford To Stand Pat

The US CPI release indicates that price pressures remained elevated in February. Importantly, core CPI inflation ticked up on a month-on-month basis to 0.5% m/m – above expectations it would remain unchanged at 0.4% m/m – marking a continuation of an uptrend…

3 years ago

Essentials

Canadian Labor Market Remains Surprisingly Resilient

Canada’s labor market has been surprisingly resilient over the past few months. Last Friday’s employment report showed a 21.8 thousand increase in jobs in February, more than double expectations of 10 thousand. This continues a string of strong beats.…

3 years ago

Essentials

NFIB: Inflation, Tight Labor Market Are Key Concerns

The results of the NFIB survey suggest that a restrictive monetary policy stance is warranted from the Fed. Although there is evidence that price pressures are moderating, they remain elevated. Despite a four-point decline from January, the share of…

3 years ago

Essentials

More Large-Cap Bank Failures Are Unlikely

Since Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) was seized by the FDIC last Friday, and Signature Bank (SBNY) was shuttered over the weekend, investors have been on pins and needles wondering how many more banks will fold. Our US Investment Strategy service doesn’t…

3 years ago

Essentials

Generative AI As A Structural Investment Theme

BCA Research’s US Political Strategy & US Equity Strategy services are bullish on generative AI as a long-term investment theme. One of the reasons for the technology sector’s unexpected outperformance since the beginning of January is a frenzy around…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Strategy For Central Europe

The growth and inflation profiles of the three central European countries are set to diverge. The outlook for Polish and Hungarian Bonds are not attractive anymore. Book profits on them. Instead, initiate a new trade: pay Polish / receive Czech 10-year swap rates.

3 years ago

Emerging Markets

Economy

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