Economy

February Survey Results: A Shift In Policy Expectations

In the monthly Daily Insights Survey we conducted last week, we asked about our readers’ expectations for Fed policy, regional equity allocation, and the tactical outlook for the S&P 500. The majority of respondents (70%) expect the Fed to end the…

3 years ago

Essentials

US Savings Rate Rises And Falls With Income Growth

According to BCA Research’s US Investment Strategy service excess pandemic savings are far more evenly spread than most investors realize, and all but the households at the bottom of the distribution are swimming in cash. The team has used the savings rate…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Too Hot, Too Cold, Both Or Neither?

A run of hot January data shook up financial markets, but we think they overreacted. We remain constructive on equities and the economy in the near term.

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Chilean Stocks: The Beginning Of A Structural Outperformance?

The Chilean economy is entering a recession. Inflation will drop rapidly and the central bank will cut rates meaningfully in H2 2023. We continue to recommend a structural overweight across Chilean risk assets on the basis of falling inflation and local yields, record cheap valuations, and dissipated political volatility.

3 years ago

Emerging Markets

Essentials

How Low Can The Japanese Inflation Drop?

Last week’s Tokyo CPI release showed the first signs of modest disinflationary pressures in the Japanese economy. Headline inflation fell from 4.4% to 3.4%, in February. The ex-fresh food component also fell. That said, the core measure, that strips out both…

3 years ago

Essentials

Lumber And The Recession Debate

It is well known that recession risks usually start to manifest themselves in the most cyclical parts of the economy. These include widening junk bond spreads, where tightening credit conditions will hit the most vulnerable of borrowers, cyclical…

3 years ago

Essentials

US: Still No Recession in Sight

BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service’s view continues to be that inflation, rather than recession, is the bigger risk for 2023. Nevertheless, even in the US where inflationary pressures are most acute, there are still significant deflationary…

3 years ago

FICC

When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

3 years ago

Currencies

FICCCoreMacro

When To Buy The Euro?

In this week’s report, we speculate on the evolution of euro trading in light of the near-term hiccups, but tremendous value that can be unlocked for longer-term investors.

3 years ago

Currencies Europe

Essentials

Are Global Trade Dynamics Improving?

The sharp rebound in China’s NBS and Caixin PMIs indicate that manufacturing activity accelerated in February – not too surprising given that it comes on the back of the post-lockdown economic reopening. What is surprising is the jump in the new export orders…

3 years ago

Economy

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