Economy

Stronger than anticipated economic data releases have caused market participants to revise their fed funds rate projections. Investors now expect the Fed will have to hike rates to a higher terminal rate and hold them there for longer than they were…

3 years ago

Essentials

Singapore NODX Sends Warning To EM Risk Assets

Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports continue to send a bleak signal about global demand. They fell by 25% y/y in January, registering the fourth consecutive annual decline. The weakness was broad-based across all of the major export categories. Notably,…

3 years ago

Essentials

The Risk of a Second Inflation Wave: If Not Now, Later?

According to BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service, even if the US avoids a second inflation wave before the next recession, there is a good chance that it will experience another wave of inflation after the recession ends, similar to what…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Rising Risk Of A Second Inflation Wave

The risk of a recession in 2023 is being supplanted by the risk of another inflation wave. We will turn more defensive on equities if it continues to look like inflation is making a comeback.

3 years ago

Global

FICC

Has The Dollar Bottomed?

From a technical standpoint, the dollar is due for a bounce. In this report, we review various indicators to gauge the magnitude and duration of this rally. We also recommend two new trades: sell the gold/silver ratio at 90 and EUR/SEK at 11.30.

3 years ago

Currencies

Essentials

US Economic Data: A Mixed Picture

US data released on Thursday provide a mixed picture of economic conditions. On the one hand, results from the PPI report, New York Fed’s Business Leaders Survey and jobless claims corroborate the signal from the latest CPI, retail sales, JOLTS, and…

3 years ago

Essentials

China’s Property Market: A Sustainable Rebound Ahead?

The latest house price data indicate that the worst is over for China’s housing market. The prices of newly built homes across 70 medium and large Chinese cities were broadly unchanged on a month-on-month basis in January. This development is notable because…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

Has The China Reopening Trade Hit A Wall?

Investor sentiment on China and EM has become bullish. Meanwhile, the reflation plays have begun fraying on the edges. Cracks always appear first in the most sensitive reflation plays and then spread to the core. The narratives of the Fed's imminent pivot and China's recovery will be questioned in the coming months. Thus, China/EM assets and related plays will sell off, and the US dollar will rebound.

3 years ago

China Emerging Markets

Essentials

Strong US Retail Sales: A Curse In Disguise?

US retail sales delivered a positive signal about consumer demand in January. The 3.0% m/m increase – the largest since March 2021 – easily beat expectations of 2.0% m/m and marked a significant improvement from December’s 1.1% m/m decline. The retail…

3 years ago

Essentials

Manufacturing Indicators Improve In Early 2023

US manufacturing sector indicators corroborate the positive signal about the US economy from the January retail sales report (see The Numbers). Although industrial output was flat in January, a 9.9% m/m drop in utilities – reflecting an unseasonably warm…

3 years ago

Economy

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