Economy

Biden’s State of the Union address will mostly be blocked by a gridlocked Congress. The one point of agreement, big spending, spells trouble over the long run, even if a technical default is avoided this fall.

The Fed is betting that the usual non-linearity of unemployment is different this time, but so far, there is nothing to suggest that it is different. We discuss the key signposts to watch out for, plus the implications for interest rates and asset allocation.

In this Strategy Insight, we go over the RBA’s recent decision and the implications of its hawkish message for AUD trades.

Copper prices are vulnerable to the downside in the coming months on a narrowing global supply-demand deficit. We expect that copper prices will plummet by 15-20% from the current level. However, the lingering structural supply deficit will put a floor under copper prices after this correction.