Economy

A Bifurcated Post-Lockdown Chinese Recovery

The November Chinese economic data released on Thursday all missed expectations. The contraction in retail sales deepened from 0.5% y/y to 5.9% y/y in November (below expectations of 4.0%). Moreover, industrial production decelerated to 2.2% y/y, fixed…

3 years ago

Essentials

ECB Has “More Ground To Cover”

As expected, the ECB hiked interest rates by 50bps at its final meeting in 2022. In addition, it announced the start of quantitative tightening. Starting in March 2023, the APP portfolio will decline at a monthly rate of EUR 15 billion until the end of 2Q…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

2023 Key Views: ‘Chimerica’ In Trouble

Special Report

Both the US and China have structural imbalances that need correcting. The former has a structurally imbalanced labour market in which demand far outstrips supply. The latter has a massively overvalued housing market. The concurrent correction of these two structural imbalances in the world’s two largest economies will necessitate a sharp slowdown in global growth, and leads to several investment conclusions.

3 years ago

Essentials

Euro Area Industrial Production Disappoints In October

Eurozone industrial production declined by a larger-than-expected 2.0% m/m in October, following a 0.8% m/m expansion. Meanwhile, output growth slowed from 5.1% to 3.4% on a year-on-year basis. The energy sector (-3.9% m/m), durable consumer goods (-1.9% m/m)…

3 years ago

Essentials

Japan: Manufacturing And Services Diverge

The Tankan survey for Q4 underscored a dichotomy in sentiment between Japan’s manufacturing and service sectors. Japan’s largest manufacturing firms’ assessment of current business conditions deteriorated for the fourth straight quarter. Meanwhile, sentiment…

3 years ago

Essentials

China’s Reopening: Impact On The Rest Of The Word

According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, China’s reopening is much more positive for the Chinese economy than it is for the rest of the world. Reopening will boost service sector activity and consumer spending much more than the…

3 years ago

CoreMacro

2023 Key Views: China’s Reopening, Impossible Trinity, And Beyond

Special Report

How to play the reopening? Which sectors will benefit the most? What will be the impact of the reopening on the rest of the world? Why is the PBoC facing the Impossible Trinity? Why has the PBoC tightened liquidity, prompting a rise in onshore interest rates? What are the implications for interest rates and the currency going forward? Is it time to upgrade Chinese onshore and offshore stocks?

3 years ago

China

Essentials

US CPI Inflation Eases Further In November

US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…

3 years ago

Essentials

Stagflation Dominates UK Economy

Conflicting forces are dominating the UK labor market. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October (the second consecutive increase), providing some evidence of cooling employment…

3 years ago

Essentials

Towards A Euro Area Manufacturing Rebound?

The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in December. The headline index for Germany rebounded by 13.4 points to -23.3 while the Eurozone measure jumped 15.1 points to -23.6. Both…

3 years ago

Economy

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