Economy
Results from the Jolts Survey continue to indicate that the US labor market is softening. The number of job openings fell from 10.7 million to 10.3 million in October, in line with the general downtrend that started in Q2. The survey’s other measures…
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence index fell from 102.2 to 100.2 in November, marking a second consecutive month of decline following a brief improvement in Q3. Both the Present Situation and Expectations sub-indices declined from downwardly revised…
US financial conditions have recently eased in the US economy as equity prices climbed and the dollar weakened. While this latest move is a positive development for US economic activity, its durability is questionable. More importantly from a cyclical…
Australian material stocks have recently been outperforming the overall Aussie equity market, climbing 20% since late-September. Unsurprisingly, these gains coincide with the latest rally in industrial metal prices, which has seen copper, aluminum, and nickel…
The Chinese government will repress social unrest, then relax Covid-19 social restrictions to try to stabilize the economy. Russia will be aggressive in the short term but will pursue a ceasefire before March 2024. European and Italian risk will stay high on energy constraints.
This week we present six key investment views for 2023.
Australia’s retail sales figures were a big miss. They contracted in October for the first time this year, falling by 0.2% m/m and disappointing expectations they would continue to grow close to September’s 0.6% m/m pace. Department stores (consumer…
Profits of Chinese industrial firms fell by 3% y/y in the first 10 months of 2022, underscoring poor economic conditions. Domestically, the sluggish property sector and negative Covid dynamics are weighing down on private sector demand and corporate profits.…
The US October CPI report showed a broad-based moderation of inflationary pressures, suggesting that price pressures have likely peaked and will continue to ease going forward. A wage-price spiral -- whereby workers demand higher wages to compensate for…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that in the first half of 2023, weak Chinese growth will be the most important headwind facing European asset prices and currencies. Ever since it joined the WTO in 2001, China has become a…