Economy
The January US CPI came in hotter than expected. Headline inflation accelerated to 0.5% m/m (3.0% y/y), and core to 0.4% m/m (3.3% y/y). Core goods and services inflation also moved higher, with the latter boosted by a sharp increase in car-insurance…
Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.
In his latest Thoughts Of The Day, Peter Berezin discusses the different moving parts of the global economy today and the potential impact of Trump's policies.
While geopolitics captured the latest headlines, Eurozone economic surprises have turned positive, while those in the US are on the verge of turning negative. Global economic surprises hinge on expectations and realized data, and they play a…
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased more than expected to 102.8 from 105.1. After reaching near all-time highs in the wake of the election, expectations pulled back somewhat as uncertainty took center stage. The decline was…
Our European strategists evaluate the looming threat of US tariffs on Europe, as it is President Trump’s next trade target after Canada, Mexico and China. While a deal centered on European energy imports and defense spending is likely, uncertainty will remain…
The New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations’ 1-year and 3-year inflation expectations were unchanged in January. Five-year ahead expectations however increased, as did expectations for staples inflation, while spending expectations…
China’s January consumer prices rebounded to 0.5% y/y, and producer price deflation was unchanged at -2.3%. China’s first quarter data tends to be distorted by the Chinese New Year, as its variable dates shift consumption peaks around without a clear pattern.…
The 3-3-3 plan pitched by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will need several improbabilities to break its way if it is to meet its goals. We think it is much more likely that the plan will disappoint. Defensive asset allocations will outperform once it becomes clear that 3-3-3 will fall short, but we are currently neutral across the board because the disappointment may be months away.
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…