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Energy

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Quarterly Portfolio Outlook: Central Bank Rate Cuts: A Savior Or Forewarning?

The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.

Global Asset Allocation by Garry Evans
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The Critical Hour: Geopolitical Outlook, Q4 2024

Markets are rallying on Fed rate cuts and China stimulus but there will also be October surprises ahead of the US election, which Trump could still win. Russia’s conflict with the West is escalating and the Middle East is destabilizing further. Investors should favor US bonds but they should add some risk in emerging markets in response to China’s policy turn.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Max Malakhveitchouk, Matt Gertken, Junfei Guo, Jesse Anak Kuri
A Meaningful US Crude Reacceleration Is Unlikely
According to BCA Research’s Commodity and Energy strategy service, even though US crude output will continue rising, a meaningful growth acceleration is unlikely. US producers adjust their output in response to market conditions. In the past, a selloff in…
Daily Insights
Has OPEC+ Exhausted Its Policy Levers?
One commodity that has not reacted to the bullish demand-side news from the Politburo (see The Numbers) is crude oil. Brent shed over 2% on Thursday, in sharp contrast to Copper’s gains. Oil markets seem to be reacting to a bearish supply-side development…
Daily Insights
Seven Geopolitical October Surprises
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, seven surprises with non-negligible odds could tip the scale in favor of Republicans for the White House by November 5. One of them is a war between Israel and Iran. Iran is still highly likely to…
Daily Insights
Lower Path Of Least Resistance For Oil Prices
The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks. Deteriorating demand likely drove these…
Daily Insights
Already Optimistic Earnings Expectations Continue To Improve
The Q2 2024 earnings season is drawing to a close with 93% of S&P 500 companies having reported results as we go to press. Nearly 80% (60%) of companies have topped earnings (sales) expectations in Q2, according to Factset. Excluding Materials and Real…
Daily Insights
Oil Is Facing Opposing Forces
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish…
Daily Insights
Carbon Credit Prices: The Correction Has Just Begun
European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…
Daily Insights
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Volatility Will Return Very Soon (GeoRisk Update)

Investors should buy protection against further volatility. The shakeup in early August was a taste of things to come. The US election is a pivotal moment in modern history that will drive up uncertainty, while other countries take advantage of US division and distraction.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken

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