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Equities

US Earnings Outlook: They Will Get Worse Before They Get Better
BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service concludes that earnings will continue on a downward path in 2023, and analyst downgrades are highly likely. Earnings growth is key to 2023 equity performance. With economic growth deteriorating, it is reasonable to…
Daily Insights
Is Our Consumption Thesis Still Valid?

Labor market strength and consumers’ evident willingness to dip into their pandemic savings keep our optimistic consumer thesis intact. We remain tactically overweight equities.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
A Temporary Peak In European Inflation

European inflation will decline through 2023, which will greatly help households and consumption. But can European inflation remain low after that?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary, Jeremie Peloso
Why Have Energy Stocks Diverged From Oil Prices?
Over the past few months, energy equities have diverged from oil prices. Although the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen by 4% since mid-July, the S&P Energy index has gained 34.4% over this period, outperforming the S&P 500 by…
Daily Insights
Fade The Rally In EM Equities and Bonds
Emerging Markets equities and bonds have staged an impressive rally. The MSCI Emerging Markets index and the JPM GBI EM Global Diversified Composite Total Return index advanced by 15% and 7%, respectively, in November in US dollar terms. This performance…
Daily Insights
GAA Quant Model Updates

MacroQuant is overweight bonds, underweight equities, and neutral on cash. Within the equity universe, the model is underweight the US and overweight Japan, the UK, and Australia.

Global Asset Allocation by Pratik Bhanuse, Lucas Laskey
Geopolitical Report Card 2022: The Two Bears

Our best calls of the year were long defensives over cyclicals, short Russia and emerging Europe, long aerospace/defense, short Greater China, and long Latin America. Our worst call of the year was long cyber security stocks.

Geopolitical Strategy by Yushu Ma, Matt Gertken, Jesse Anak Kuri, Guy Russell
Can Small Caps Outperform In 2023?
Over the past two months, the S&P 600 Small Cap index has gained nearly 17%, slightly outperforming the S&P 500 large cap benchmark by 3.1%. This marks an improvement in the fate of small caps, which have generally fallen in line with their larger…
Daily Insights
Chinese Equities: Short Banks / Long Consumer Staples And Autos
BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service recommends a new relative equity trade: short Chinese bank stocks / long Chinese consumer staples and auto stocks. Authorities are once again using banks to finance stimulus – in this case, to fund property…
Daily Insights
China's Reopening: Beware Of Zigzags And Roundabouts

Is China completely abandoning its dynamic zero-COVID policy? When will the economy start recovering? What are the implications for Chinese stocks and China-related assets?
Have authorities provided enough financing to property developers? Will developers be able to repay these loans and, if not, who would bear the cost of potential defaults?
What should be the strategy for Chinese onshore rates and the RMB?

China Investment Strategy, Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan

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