Fixed Income

The Fed is on hold for now, but its 2026 economic projections are far too optimistic. The Fed will ease more next year than it currently anticipates. 

We present our five key views for global fixed income markets in 2026. A year that will see the global easing cycle come to an end.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for December 2025.

The high-frequency Joshi Rule confirms that the US labour market is holding up. Equity investors should regard 5-10 percent selloffs as tactical buying opportunities. Bond investors should stay underweight US duration. Plus, a new high-conviction trade is to go overweight the 30-year German bund versus the 30-year US T-bond.

Our key US fixed income views for 2026.

Stock market valuations are moving as a near-perfect mirror image of the US real interest rate, meaning that the Fed is underpinning the stock market. But if the market stopped believing in AI-driven profits growth, valuations would collapse, irrespective of the Fed’s efforts to underpin them. When might this happen? Plus, two new tactical trades are: long BTC versus gold; and overweight industrials.

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

This Special Report outlines the Fed’s balance sheet strategy and the rationale behind it. We also provide updated projections for the major asset and liability line items on the Fed’s balance sheet.

The greater risk to the world economy in 2026-27 is not that a recession triggers a market crash, but that a market crash triggers a recession. This is because a market crash will destroy the wealth that is funding the crucial marginal spending of 2.5 million excess American retirees. Plus, a new tactical trade is: Overweight Switzerland (SMI) versus UK (FTSE 100).

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2025.