Sorry, you need to enable JavaScript to visit this website.
Skip to main content
Skip to main content

Fixed Income

If You Buy Just One Bond, Buy The German Bund
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint service, the ECB is the central bank that poses the lowest risk of repeating the mistakes of the 1970s and letting inflation expectations unanchor. One reason is the ECB’s inherited Germanic anti-inflation DNA. Even…
Daily Insights
Will US Small Caps Continue To Disappoint?
US small-cap stocks have underperformed significantly this year. While the S&P 500 price index is up 14.0% year-to-date, the S&P 600 has lost 2.5%. However, this underperformance has not been a straight line down. Small caps benefited from a…
Daily Insights
A Growing Monetary Policy Divergence Between Australia & Canada
The economies of Canada and Australia share many similarities.  Both nations are major commodity exporters, but with overvalued housing markets and highly indebted consumers.  Lately, however, a notable gap has appeared between the economic…
Daily Insights
F_IMAGE_20231108_112301.PNG
The Joshi Rule Recession Indicator Approaches Its Event Horizon

Following the October US jobs data, the ‘Joshi rule’ real-time US recession indicator increased from 0.11 to 0.15, meaning that it is fast approaching its event horizon of 0.20. We go through the investment implications. We also highlight a new long-term recommendation. Plus, the Norwegian krone is close to a potential rebound.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Agency MBS Spreads Look Very Attractive
According to BCA Research's US Bond Strategy service, the current spate of MBS underperformance has created a lot of value in the sector. Mortgage-Backed Securities underperformed the duration-equivalent Treasury index by 64 basis points in October,…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231107_132515.PNG
Indonesia: Back To The Old Playbook

Despite very low inflation, Bank Indonesia raised its policy rates last month to support the currency. The strategy did not work before and will not work now. Stay short the rupiah.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Rajeeb Pramanik
The Eurozone's Disinflationary Impulse Is Broadening
According to BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service, German yields will fall toward 2% as market-based inflation expectations dip. For now, the deceleration in Eurozone core CPI can be attributed to the effect of the pass-through of energy…
Daily Insights
f_image_20231106_145230.PNG
Bonds Need Labor Market Weakness To Extend The Rally

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for November 2023.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
F_IMAGE_20231103_163350.PNG
Europe’s Disinflation Continues

The Eurozone’s inflation will continue to slow over the coming months. While this trend will help Bund prices, will it boost the appeal of European equities?

European Investment Strategy by Mathieu Savary
f_image_20231103_171004.PNG
Open Questions

We consider several uncertainties in this week’s report, from the interest rate outlook to the source of the mountain of cash households have amassed since the pandemic began. We have not adjusted our tactical asset-allocation recommendations but will do so soon to align with the defensive cast of our cyclical recommendations.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

Related Topics

AI BCA Indicators/Model BDCs Bubbles/Crises/Manias Commodities Commodities & Energy Sector Country In-Focus Currencies Defaults Deleveraging See more Topics