Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
We are pleased to share this <i>Special Report</i> rolling out our Global ETF Strategy (GETF) service's model ETF portfolios.
We are in the latter stages of developing the digital interface that will serve as the central nervous system for the GETF service and are excited to be rolling it out next month. In the meantime, the GETF team has embarked on its regular bi-weekly publication schedule. An ETF Primer <i>Special Report</i> will follow on October 26. It will discuss ETF architecture, operation and trading, and is meant to help investors determine how they can best deploy ETFs to accomplish their tactical and strategic goals.
Global bond yields continue to grind higher, led by signs of improving growth, moderately higher inflation and central banks having difficulty staying credibly dovish. Maintain a below-benchmark duration stance.
Our Treasury yield fair value model suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield has an additional +19bps of upside. Stay at below benchmark duration.
Our <i>Fourth Quarter Strategy Outlook</i> presents the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of the year and beyond.
Deutsche Bank's woes highlight a much wider malaise within European banks: under-capitalisation and under-profitability. We explain why getting the banks right is crucial to a successful investment strategy in equity, bond and currency markets.
This week, we are reviewing all of our active trades discussed in the last twelve months, which are intended to be an overlay to our recommended fixed income portfolio.
There are two key risks that could derail a bear-flattening of the yield curve. The first is a Trump election victory, the second is a flaring of stress in the non-U.S. banking sector.
In September, the model outperformed the S&P 500, while it underperformed global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For October, the model trimmed its allocation to stocks and boosted its weightings in bonds and cash.
It's hard to make a case for attractive returns from any asset class over the next year. We dial down risk a bit but ending our overweight on junk bonds. Investors should pick up yield where they can but without taking excessive risk.
Investors stand to benefit from Czech koruna revaluation versus the euro and also from positive carry, while waiting for the central bank to remove the exchange rate floor. Go long CZK / short euro. Economic fundamentals and policy divergence between Poland and Hungary point to a stronger zloty versus the forint. Go long PLN / short HUF.