Gov Sovereigns/Treasurys
The prospect of a new trade war more than offsets the other pro-business parts of Trump’s agenda. With the labor market already weakening going into the election, we are raising our 12-month US recession probability from 65% to 75%.
Our thoughts on the bond market’s reaction to the election and this afternoon’s FOMC meeting.
The Election Day is finally upon us. No, there is no final “silver bullet” forecast contained in this email. Just our long-term forecast of how the election will, no matter who wins, impact the markets.
A reaction to this morning’s employment report and a preview of the potential bond market implications of next week’s US election and FOMC meeting.
The latest Bank of Japan meeting did not alter our high-conviction views of being long the yen and underweight JGBs.
We update our 12-month return projections for different US fixed income sectors in soft-landing and recession scenarios.