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Labor Market

Weak NFIB, Limited Wage Pressure
The May NFIB survey missed estimates and pointed to softer small-business conditions, though the signal on the broader labor market remains mixed. The headline index fell to 95.3 from 95.9. The overall picture was soft, with both capex and hiring intentions…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The Consumer Can Keep Going

Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta
US Employment Gathering Steam
The blowout US payrolls report reinforces improving labor market momentum and upside risks to Fed policy, arguing for continued caution on duration. Non-farm payrolls rose 172k, well-above expectations of 88k, while the prior two months were revised sharply…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
Canada Jobs Rebound, But No All-Clear Yet
Canada’s labor market is showing early signs of stabilization, but not sufficient for the Bank of Canada to begin raising rates. Employment increased by 88k in May, well above expectations of 10k, led by a jump in full-time employment, while the unemployment…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
JOLTS Surprise: Less Than Meets The Eye
The April JOLTS report confirms a mixed labor market signal rather than a clean reacceleration, reinforcing the view that the Fed can avoid hiking unless inflation expectations or core inflation force the issue. Job openings jumped sharply above expectations…
Daily Insights by Artem Sakhbiev
The EQ Premium
Our Counterpoint strategists argue AI will not make the human brain obsolete. AI can replicate parts of our brain’s neocortex, which supports logic, reasoning, mathematics, and other IQ-driven tasks, but it lacks the limbic system that generates emotion and…
Daily Insights by Rajeeb Pramanik
Why Robots Will NOT Kill Middle Incomes

AI excels at IQ but fails miserably at EQ. Hence, AI will obsolete any job that relies on IQ, including many graduate-level jobs. But high-EQ humans will be in high demand to pair up with AI, and many of these jobs will be middle income jobs. We discuss the implication for the economy and markets. Plus, a new tactical trade is underweight global tech versus healthcare.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Slack, Britannia?
The latest UK employment and inflation data came in cooler than expected, reinforcing the case for weaker growth ahead. Payrolls fell by 100k in April after a 28k decline in March. The unemployment rate also rose 0.1pp to 5.0%. Average weekly earnings ticked…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Canada: Losing Momentum
Canada’s growth outlook is deteriorating, with labor-market slack rising and economic surprises turning lower. Canadian economic surprises have turned negative and continue to fall. The April jobs report disappointed, with employment contracting for the third…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
“There Is Nothing To Be Gained For Our LPs By Being Bearish”

We take stock of earnings, AI capex and the labor market and explain why we think the repeated new highs in the S&P 500 are justified.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Manufacturing Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics