Latest from BCA Research
US stocks and bonds are on a collision course. Only a meaningful equity selloff is likely to pull bond yields considerably lower. Global equity risk-reward looks poor. The dollar will stay firm near term, but its medium- and long-term outlook…
Downgrade global and US portfolio duration from “above benchmark” to “at benchmark” as the risk of hawkish monetary policy surprises is rising.
In this month’s Beta Report, we assess what that structural tension means for investors under two distinct scenarios. In our base case – a multipolar world order – Australia's position turns out to be more advantageous than it appears.…
US growth remains positive and is now improving, with the economy seemingly exiting Slowdown and proceeding into Expansion. Markets are reflecting the shift, rewarding revenue growth and capex growth, while earnings expectations continue to…
The divergence across frontier markets is likely to widen. Kenya, Kazakhstan, and Sri Lanka are well placed to outperform, while Pakistan is vulnerable. We offer several trade ideas to capture this divergence.
The US-China trade truce is getting bigger and better, but a grand strategic bargain on Iran and Taiwan is not happening.
A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural…
Hopes for an imminent Middle East de-escalation have capped oil prices in recent weeks, but that restraint may soon fade.
The dollar's retreat is creating the most compelling window for euro internationalisation since Maastricht, but Europe is missing the one instrument that would make it real. In this report, we make the case for the Eurobond, assess which model is…
Democrats are likely to win big in this year's midterm elections. Our new quant model still slightly favors Republicans for the Senate, but we expect the oil shock to deliver surprise Democratic victories.