China Stimulus
The recovery of China’s industrial profits is set to disappoint in 2H 2023. Corporate profits are more sensitive to changes in prices than volumes. Given producers’ selling prices will keep deflating through 2023, industrial profits will only stabilize at a very depressed level even with a mild improvement in volume. A disappointing recovery in industrial profits entails more downward risks for A-share prices in absolute terms. Chinese 10-year bond yields are set to drop to a record low.
In this Strategy Outlook, we present the major investment themes and views we see playing out for the rest of 2023 and beyond.
The combination of a global manufacturing recession and tight/tightening policy is raising a red flag for global non-TMT stocks. In China, households are entering a liquidity trap, and deflationary pressures are heightening. Authorities need to reduce interest rates considerably and allow the currency to depreciate. By doing so, China will export its deflation to the rest of the world.
China is facing a risk of deflation. Marginal interest rate cuts and targeted stimulus will be insufficient to boost China’s growth given the current deflationary mindset and the danger is that the economy may be entering a liquidity trap. Deflation is bullish for government bonds, but negative for equity prices. Chinese share prices will continue to decline.