Developed Countries
Total consumer credit rose by USD 6.4 billion in April (to USD 5,053 billion outstanding), from a USD 1.1 billion decrease in March (a large downward revision to the USD 6.3 billion rise initially reported) and significantly shy of expectations for a USD 10…
Sweden is a small export-oriented economy and its high sensitivity to global trade makes it a good bellwether of global growth developments. The headwinds from high borrowing costs are relatively more pronounced in Sweden where a large share of households…
A decade of Canadian equity underperformance has led to a historical discount relative to the S&P 500. Sector composition largely explains this underperformance. Banks and natural resources stocks are overrepresented in the TSX while the US stock market…
We close our overweights to Energy and Aerospace & Defense. The macroeconomic backdrop is deteriorating for Energy. As for A&D, the good news is already priced in.
The ECB is now firmly in easing mode, even if it refuses to pre-commit to a specific rate path. What does this data dependency mean for the euro and European yields?
Although the comprehensive economic surprise indexes continued weakening in May, the metrics in our equity downgrade checklist haven’t softened enough to check more boxes now. While we continue to expect the US economy will enter a recession before year end, it is not yet certain and we remain tactically neutral.
US nonfarm payrolls grew by 272 thousand in May, accelerating from 165 thousand in April, and swamping expectations of 180 thousand. Average hourly earnings increased by 4.1% y/y from an upwardly revised 4.0%. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly…
Global growth expectations for 2024 have been revised higher. Investors now forecasts 2024 GDP growth to clock in at 3%, up from 2.6% at the beginning of this year. A 1.1% upward revision in US growth expectations since January is driving the increased…
Our colleagues at Global Investment Strategy have shown that postwar US (and global) manufacturing cycles have tended to last 3 years, divided equally between an 18-month up leg and an 18-month down leg. This framework has been a useful gauge for the…
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, Republicans are more likely to win the Senate than the White House – and more likely to win either of these than the House. But Republicans are favored in both Senate and House if they win the White…