Developed Countries
Although the sell-off in the US dollar and relative outperformance of non-US stocks will pause over the coming months as a global recession begins, the fading of US exceptionalism will still cause the dollar to weaken and US stocks to underperform over a multi-year horizon.
The US dollar’s underperformance since Liberation Day highlights shifting dynamics in global markets, but the recent “Sell America” move is overdone. During April’s market turmoil, the dollar failed to act as a safe haven, with US equities, bonds, and the DXY…
US stagflation is the main message from the April Fed Beige Book, reinforcing our underweight in risk assets and preference for gold. The report showed slowing growth, a softening labor market, and rising input costs. Our Beige Book Monitor mirrors this…
April PMIs confirm global growth is stalling, reinforcing our overweight in government bonds and underweight in risk assets. Services witnessed the worst deterioration, but manufacturing is still contracting even if broadly stable. This mirrors recent US…
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Weak European consumer confidence adds to recent sentiment misses and reinforces our tactical long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. April flash Consumer Confidence fell to -16.7 from -14.5 in March, missing expectations and aligning with…
Our EM strategists recommend upgrading CE3 assets within EM portfolios, as a structural shift in the global currency regime is underway. They expect the greenback to depreciate against the euro amid a global downturn, supporting Central European currencies,…
Advanced US indicators for April continue to deteriorate, reinforcing our defensive positioning as recession risks remain underpriced. After weak Empire and Philly Fed manufacturing prints, the Philly Fed services survey shows the slowdown is spreading beyond…
President Trump's pressure on Fed Chairman Powell is intensifying, but keeping Powell in place offers the administration political cover while keeping bond yields contained. Removing Powell would be legally difficult and risk unsettling markets, while his…
The latest UK data supports a May BoE cut, reinforcing our overweight in Gilts as growth headwinds build and inflation cools. Employment declined by 78k in March, accelerating from February’s downwardly revised 8k drop, while vacancies fell below pre-COVID…