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Developed Countries

US-China: Reconciliation, Reckoning, Or Relocation?
Special Report

Upgrade the odds of a full-scale war in the Taiwan Strait from 5% to 10%. Rapid escalation of US-China economic war raises the probability of tensions spilling into the military-strategic domain. Investors should buy insurance against this tail risk while it is cheap. Meanwhile, use this year’s trade shock and equity volatility to increase allocation to EM manufacturing states.

Geopolitical Strategy, GeoMacro Strategy, Global Investment Strategy by Marko Papic, Matt Gertken
A Dovish ECB Gears For More Easing
The ECB’s latest 25 bps cut and President Lagarde's notably dovish tone amid rising trade uncertainty reinforce our long December 2025 ESTR futures versus SOFR position. The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.25%, and Lagarde reiterated the disinflationary…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Stagflation Signals Build As Philly Fed Plunges
April’s Philadelphia Fed survey adds to recent stagflationary signals, reinforcing our defensive commodities positioning. The headline index collapsed to -26.4 from 12.5 in March, missing expectations and confirming the April deterioration seen in the Empire…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
US Housing Weakness Adds To Growth Concerns
Weak housing data reinforces our defensive positioning, as recession odds remain underpriced in risk assets. US housing starts fell sharply, declining a larger-than-expected annualized rate of 11.4% in March after a 9.8% rebound in February, which was driven…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Is Jerome Powell’s Job Safe?
Trump’s renewed attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell raise policy uncertainty but are unlikely to lead to Powell’s removal, reinforcing our expectation for continued restrictive policy and supporting our long duration stance. Trump's intensified criticism…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Soft Data Sends A Warning On US Jobs
Soft data for the US labor market has turned sharply lower, reinforcing the case for a defensive asset allocation. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Miroslav Aradski from our Global Investment Strategy team. While it may take months for the tariff shock and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
The US-China Trade War Saga. What’s Next?
Our China strategists remain defensive and tactically downgrade MSCI China to underweight, citing escalating US China tariff tensions and subdued domestic demand. Favor government bonds over equities, defensive sectors, and A-Shares over offshore Chinese…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Deflation Takes Hold: Stay Long Bonds As The ECB Cuts

Europe’s deflation problem is getting harder to ignore. This week’s ECB cut is just the beginning — tariffs, the euro’s rally, and softening demand all point to more easing ahead. We explain what it means for yields, equities, and EUR/USD.

European Investment Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Mathieu Savary
Weekly Screeners: Canadian Staples; Sweden On The Frontline; And Searching For Extremes

This week, our three screeners cover equity plays in: Canadian Consumer Staples, high-beta Swedish equities, and factor plays across global equities.

Equity Analyzer by Guy Russell, Shi Li
BoC On Hold: Growth Weakens, But Inflation Limits Easing
After seven consecutive cuts brought policy into neutral territory, the BoC held its deposit rate at 2.75% reinforcing our neutral-to-negative stance on Canadian government bonds. With policy now within the 2.25%-3.25% neutral range, the Bank comfortably…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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