Developed Countries
The near-term outlook for US consumption is a source of debate among BCA strategists. On the one hand, our Global Investment and US Investment strategists are positive on the short-term consumption outlook. They expect healthy balance sheets and large…
BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service concludes that the rise in mortgage rates will weaken housing activity in Europe in the foreseeable future. In 2021, the average homeownership rate among European countries was about 67%, despite outliers…
The latest CPI and PPI releases, the modestly less hawkish turn in Fed officials’ comments and evidence that consumers continue to spend with some relish support our constructive near-term views on equities and the economy.
What is the outlook for the European housing market amid rising mortgage rates and the energy crisis? Does housing represent a systemic risk? Can households weather the storm? And what are the opportunities, if any?
The Conference Board’s US Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) declined by a larger-than-expected 0.8% m/m in October, marking a deterioration following the previous month’s downwardly revised 0.5% m/m contraction. Negative contributions from consumer…
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt’s Autumn Statement unveiled a new fiscal plan that marked a U-turn from his predecessor’s mini budget announcement in late-September. The GBP 55bn plan includes GBP 30bn in spending cuts and GBP 25bn in tax…
The latest equity rally and dollar selloff drove the recent easing in the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Indexes for both the US and Euro Area. To the extent that financial conditions gauge the availability of funding in an economy, this is a positive…
The US equity rally over the past month has been broad-based across nearly all sectors – with just over half of them posting double digit gains. The Consumer Discretionary Sector is the main outlier. It is the only S&P 500 sector that has not benefitted…
The narrative that the US can tolerate much higher interest rates, compared to the rest of the world has helped the dollar in 2022. In this report, we examine the sustainability of this thesis, from our holistic assessment of global growth indicators.
Japan’s economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.3% q/q in Q3 (annualized decline of 1.2%), following 1.1% q/q growth in Q2 (annualized 4.6%) and disappointing expectations of a lower yet still positive growth rate. However, this figure understates the health…