Developed Countries

U.S. consumption is the strongest economic link. Consumers are benefiting from low fuel costs, historically cheap borrowing rates and increasing capital availability. Wage growth is outpacing nominal GDP growth, consumer income expectations are climbing, underscoring that the barriers to increased consumption are gradually falling. In particular, retailers should benefit if Treasury yields stay subdued and U.S. currency appreciation reduces the cost of imported consumer goods and boost purchasing power. However, it is instructive to dig beneath the surface. Not all retail sales categories are experiencing positive momentum, with some suffering from more acute deflationary pressures than others, and a homogenous recommendation on retailers is no longer appropriate. Broadly, retail sales at discretionary stores are contracting, while growth is evident at non-discretionary stores, and non-store sales continue to boom. The chart highlights our favored retail categories, which generally have positive sales momentum. Bottom Line: a selectivity bullish stance is warranted on retailing equities, please see yesterday's Weekly Report for more details.

We took profits in the S&P software index and downgraded to neutral in January, because the boost to corporate software investment to offset flagging productivity growth looked to have been fully discounted. After a six month consolidation, relative performance has jumped back to this year's highs, but the conditions to sustain a breakout are absent. Software demand is more levered to business investment than consumer spending. In the macro environment we envision, consumption will continue to outpace investment. The rise in the personal savings rate means that there is pent-up consumer spending to be realized as wage inflation recovers. On the flipside, stretched corporate balance sheets and a dearth of sales growth pose significant restrictions to capital spending budgets. Ominously, software sales are already contracting relative to total S&P 500 sales. The software industry's contribution to GDP growth invariably becomes negative, i.e. a drag, when overall capital spending retrenches, as is currently the case. Sales contraction, and profit margin erosion, is not conducive to premium valuations. Cut to underweight and please see yesterday's Weekly Report for more details. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG-S5SOFT: ADBE, ADSK, CA, CTXS, EA, INTU, MSFT, ORCL, RHT, CRM, SYMC, ATVI.

Chair Janet Yellen's comments at Jackson Hole reinforce our view that a Fed rate hike is highly unlikely until December. The risk is that overbought equity and junk bond markets correct as an oversold dollar prices in a December move.

The equity rally has been in a holding pattern, with some tactical fraying around the edges.

In August, the model outperformed the S&P 500 and global equities in both USD and local-currency terms. For September, the model increased its allocation to cash and trimmed its exposure to equities.

The post-Brexit rebound has pushed stocks into overbought territory. U.S. equities, in particular, look increasingly priced for perfection. Higher U.S. rate expectations will push up the dollar, further curbing S&P 500 profit growth. Share buyback activity and dividend growth are slowing, while U.S. election risks are likely to rise. Go short the NASDAQ 100 futures as a tactical hedge.

Steel share prices celebrated the introduction of punitive import tariffs earlier this year, but that impact may already be wearing off. The latest data show that U.S. steel imports, while still well below the 2015 peak, have hooked back up, and are rising as a share of domestic production. China's steel prices have plunged, and are well below U.S. prices, a trend that may continue given that Chinese steel production has reaccelerated. Consequently, Chinese steel exports are likely to rise anew, especially given that floor space started is moving laterally and infrastructure spending growth is cooling rapidly (shown inverted, second panel). Less domestic consumption implies increased pressure to export. While U.S. producers may stay somewhat insulated given trade barriers, it will be difficult for U.S. steel prices to rise if prices in the rest of the world are deflating. Balance sheets remain stretched, as measured by historically high net debt/EBITDA ratios, underscoring that risk premiums will increase if low steel prices pressure cash flow. Stay underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S15STEL-NUE, STLD, RS, X, WOR, ATI, CMC, CRS, AKS, HAYN, SXC, TMST, ZEUS.