Economy
July’s ZEW data confirmed improving sentiment in Europe, but near-term conditions remain fragile, reinforcing a buy-on-dips stance for long-term investors. Euro area expectations rose to 36.1 from 35.3, with Germany also improving to beat expectations.…
We discuss the implications of this morning’s CPI report and the relative attractiveness of 2/5 Treasury curve steepeners.
MacroQuant’s equity model points to mild downside risks for the S&P 500, supporting a modest equity underweight. Our Chart Of The Week comes from Chanhyuck Lee, from our Global Investment Strategy team. MacroQuant’s Stock Coach model, which…
UK growth data continues to disappoint, making the case for a Gilts overweight and a dovish BoE. May GDP fell 0.1% m/m, missing estimates and marking a consecutive monthly contraction after April’s 0.3% decline. Industrial and manufacturing output both…
In this chartbook, we look at the balance of payments across DM and EM countries. The US does not fare well, but neither do a few other countries.
We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for July 2025.
Japan’s improving growth momentum and structural inflation shift support an underweight in JGBs and long JPY positioning. The June Eco Watchers Survey was broadly in line with expectations, with current conditions ticking up to 45.0 and expectations modestly…
BCA’s Private Markets & Alternatives strategists recommend a balanced allocation across Public and Private Infrastructure, with near-term valuation favoring Public. Structural differences in index construction, sector mix, and regional exposure drive…
Labor market cracks reinforce long duration and steepener positioning as growth risks mount. Job market data has looked strong on the surface, but the details of the June employment and JOLTS reports confirm a slowing trend within the “low hiring, low firing”…