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Economy

In this FX note, we provide a rationale for why it is important to pay attention to technical indicators, while still keeping your eyeball on the structural factors that drive currencies. This report answers the following questions: 1. Should you buy or sell the USD over a three-to-six month period from the pure lens of our proven technical indicators and 2. What are the best tactical cross trades among currencies. 

The US labor market appears balanced but at a pivotal point, with further weakness likely to prompt a shift to maximum defensiveness. After running the hottest since the 1960s, the labor market has gradually cooled. That rebalancing sparked a brief growth…
While consumer sentiment is rebounding, sticky inflation expectations and slowing growth warrant staying long duration and steepeners. The preliminary June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index surprised to the upside, rising to 60.5 from 52.2.…
BCA’s China Investment strategists see limited upside for Chinese equities and favor bonds, as trade tensions ease but domestic headwinds persist. This week’s US-China trade talks in London lowered the risk of near-term escalation or new retaliatory tariffs,…
Special Report

Provided that humanity can overcome the existential risks posed by AI, real incomes will rise. Although most workers will ultimately gain from the transition to an AI-dominated economy, the biggest winners will be those who control the land and the natural resources beneath it.

The S&P 500 has breached 6000 and may retest all-time highs, but we would not recommend chasing the rally. Risk assets have shrugged off recession fears, with stress indicators like the VIX, SKEW, and VVIX still subdued, signaling limited demand for…
Further labor market deterioration would trigger a shift to maximum underweight in equities. While soft indicators have markedly deteriorated, hard labor data remains relatively resilient, though it has clearly weakened. The labor market is still in…

The London Sino-US trade talks offered hope of de-escalation, but Chinese equities remain under pressure from deflationary headwinds and lack a clear macro catalyst to trend higher.

The US-China tariff deal confirms one thing: markets are still priced for perfection, with little upside even if a recession is dodged. The London negotiations yielded a partial agreement: The US will reduce tariffs, and China will remove export restrictions…
Colder May CPI reinforces our overweight in government bonds and tactical steepener trades as growth slows and the Fed stays cautious. Headline inflation rose 0.1% (2.4% y/y), below expectations, as did core CPI (2.8% y/y). Goods inflation was flat, and…