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Economy

2023 Key Views: China’s Reopening, Impossible Trinity, And Beyond
Special Report

How to play the reopening? Which sectors will benefit the most? What will be the impact of the reopening on the rest of the world? Why is the PBoC facing the Impossible Trinity? Why has the PBoC tightened liquidity, prompting a rise in onshore interest rates? What are the implications for interest rates and the currency going forward? Is it time to upgrade Chinese onshore and offshore stocks?

China Investment Strategy
US CPI Inflation Eases Further In November
US CPI inflation cooled for a second consecutive month in November. The headline figure eased to 0.1% m/m (7.1% y/y), falling below consensus estimates. Core inflation was also softer-than-anticipated, moderating to 0.2% m/m (6.0% y/y) from 0.3% m/m (6.3%…
Daily Insights
Stagflation Dominates UK Economy
Conflicting forces are dominating the UK labor market. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the unemployment rate ticked up from 3.6% to 3.7% in the three months to October (the second consecutive increase), providing some evidence of cooling employment…
Daily Insights
Towards A Euro Area Manufacturing Rebound?
The ZEW survey of investor sentiment sent an upbeat signal about economic conditions in both Germany and the Eurozone in December. The headline index for Germany rebounded by 13.4 points to -23.3 while the Eurozone measure jumped 15.1 points to -23.6. Both…
Daily Insights
China’s Credit Expansion Falls Short Of Expectations
Chinese credit rebounded in November, after plunging in the preceding month. New loans expanded by CNY 1.2 trillion, double October’s levels. Similarly, aggregate financing – a broad measure of credit and liquidity – increased by CNY 2.0 trillion following…
Daily Insights
Will An Improvement In US Consumer Confidence Boost Equities?
Preliminary results from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey suggest that American household morale firmed in December. The headline index climbed 2.3 points following November’s decline to 56.8. Importantly, consumers’ assessment of current…
Daily Insights
S&P 500 Pricing Power: A Sector Breakdown
On aggregate, US firms experienced a sharp increase in pricing power following the initial shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, this trend has since reversed, and companies’ pricing power is fading. The darkening economic backdrop ultimately limits firms’…
Daily Insights
A Positive But Volatile 2023 For European Spreads
Heading into 2023, BCA Research’s European Investment Strategy service recommends fixed-income investors overweight Euro Area IG relative to both government bonds and US credit, while adopting a more cautious stance toward high-yield. European corporate…
Daily Insights
What Our Strategists Listen To
Special Report

Our recommendations for podcasts (on macro and markets, as well as non-work-related topics) to try over the holidays.

Global Asset Allocation, Global Investment Strategy by Garry Evans
2023 Key Views: Preparing For A Pivot Of Our Own
Special Report

Following the release of the Bank Credit Analyst’s annual outlook, we unveil our key views for 2023. The investment strategy takeaway is that we want to lean into risk in the early part of the year but reduce exposure to it in the second half.

US Investment Strategy by Doug Peta

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