Fixed Income
The S&P 500 has struggled to re-test all-time highs since the US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed the 4.50% mark. Stocks have moved sideways since December, and January’s hot CPI print confirmed that equities remain averse to higher yields. During…
Some thoughts on this morning’s CPI report and its implications for the Fed and Treasury yields.
Questions about fiscal risks and their impact on bond markets have become more frequent in client conversations. This Special Report provides a framework to assess a country’s fiscal sustainability and how it affects its bond market outlook. On an individual country basis, Spain has shown a remarkable turnaround in its fiscal sustainability outlook while the fiscal outlook for France continues to deteriorate.
The January NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased more than expected to 102.8 from 105.1. After reaching near all-time highs in the wake of the election, expectations pulled back somewhat as uncertainty took center stage. The decline was…
The January US jobs report was solid, reflecting a healthy labor market. Payrolls rose by less than expected at 143k, down from an upwardly-revised 307k in December, leaving the 3-month moving average at 237k. The unemployment rate ticked down 0.1% to 4.0%…
The preliminary February University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index missed estimates, falling to 67.8 from 71.1 in January. The decrease came from both expectations and the assessment of current conditions. Measures of 1-year and 5-10 year inflation…
Some thoughts on this morning's employment data and Treasury Secretary Bessent's recent attempts to talk down the 10-year Treasury yield.
The January ISM Services missed estimates, decreasing to 52.8 from 54.0 in December. The move was driven by activity components, while employment and suppliers’ delivery times increased. Additionally, the prices paid measure decreased, reversing the…
Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2025.
Trade tensions muddy the outlook for global central banks. The 2010s were an era of low growth and low inflation that called for easy monetary policy. The post-COVID era has been marked by overheating and high inflation calling for tight policy. The second…