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Fixed Income

Dispatches From The Future (January 2, 2026): The 2025 Recession

This is the time of the year when strategists are busy sending out their annual outlooks. Here on the Global Investment Strategy team, we decided to go one step further. Rather than pontificating about what could happen in 2025, we decided to harness the power of the multiverse to tell you what did happen (in at least one highly representative timeline).

Next week, please join me for a Webcast on Tuesday, December 17 at 10:30 AM EST (3:30 PM GMT, 4:30 PM CET) to discuss the economy and financial markets.

And with that, I will sign off for the year. I wish you and your loved ones a very happy and healthy 2025. We will be back in the first week of January with our MacroQuant Model Update.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
US Inflation Report Cements December Cut
The November CPI came in line with expectations, accelerating to 0.3% m/m (2.7% y/y) from 0.2% (2.6% y/y) in October. Core also printed at 0.3% m/m, the same as October and remaining at 3.3% y/y. The acceleration was mainly driven by food and used cars. …
Daily Insights
BoC Back At Neutral
The Bank of Canada cut the overnight rate by 50 bps to 3.25%, a move predicted by economists and roughly priced in. The consecutive supersized cut brings the policy rate in the upper end of the 2.25%-to-3.25% range the BoC considers as neutral. With inflation…
Daily Insights
2025 Key Views: US Fixed Income
Special Report

We offer 5 key investment views for US fixed income markets in 2025.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
Hard Data Shows No Pickup In Global Growth
China’s November trade balance increased to CNY 692.8 bln on the back of slowing-but-still-growing exports (down to 5.8% y/y from 11.2% in October), and a worsening imports contraction (-4.7% y/y vs. -3.7% in October). In Japan, growth in machine tools orders…
Daily Insights
No European Sentiment Rebound In December
The December Sentix Economic Index for the Euro Area missed expectations, declining to -17.5 vs. -12.8 in November. Both the current situation and expectations components declined.  As the first sentiment indicator for December, the Sentix confirms…
Daily Insights
2025 Counterpoint Outlook: Watch Japan
Our Counterpoint strategists published their 2025 outlook; they see major market movements for the year ahead hinging on Japan. Japan remains the cornerstone of global liquidity, with rising Japanese real yields posing a key risk. Monitoring Japanese real…
Daily Insights
What About The Yield Curve?
The US Treasury yield curve recently bull flattened, with the 2-year/10-year segment almost completely flat. Meanwhile, the breakeven inflation curve has re-inverted, with 2-year breakeven inflation rate now above the 10-year maturity by about 25 basis…
Daily Insights
Peak Everything
Our GeoMacro Strategy service published their 2025 outlook, and they see three peaks shaping the year: Peak fiscal, peak-deglobalization, and peak geopolitical risk. In 2024, our colleagues’ bullish economic outlook proved accurate in the first half, while…
Daily Insights
Europe: A New Hope?
Our European Investment Strategy and GeoMacro Strategy teams published a joint report, digging into the structural challenges behind Europe’s economic underperformance, while pointing out to potential turnaround opportunities. Europe’s prolonged…
Daily Insights

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