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Fixed Income

Another Hotter-Than-Anticipated US Inflation Report
US headline CPI inflation accelerated from 0.3% m/m to 0.4% m/m in February, in line with expectations. A rise in gasoline prices and shelter inflation accounted for 60% of this increase. Meanwhile, the annual rate of change in the headline index unexpectedly…
Daily Insights
Inflation Is Once Again Top Problem For Small Business Owners
Although the Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimates for Q1 have been trending lower, the latest 2.5% print (which is down from 3.4% a month ago) still suggests that economic conditions are resilient in the US. Yet small business owners are less optimistic. The results…
Daily Insights
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Take Profits On Inflation Hedges

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for March 2024.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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The Golden Rule Of Investing In UK Linkers
Special Report

In this Special Report, we introduce our UK Linkers Golden Rule – a framework to profitably trade and invest in UK inflation-linked bonds versus nominal UK gilts. The Rule is currently signaling that nominal Gilts should outperform UK linkers over the next year as UK inflation slows.

Global Fixed Income Strategy by Robert Timper
South Africa: Headed For A Recession
Our Emerging Markets Strategy team posits that the South African economy is heading into a recession later this year. The South African government refrained from announcing any stimulus measures in its recent budget proposals. The fiscal plan for 2024-25…
Daily Insights
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Stay The Course On Treasury Positioning

We update the indicators in our duration checklist following this morning’s employment report.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Where We Have Conviction

Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (3) a US profit margin squeeze is imminent; (4) EM domestic bonds and sovereign USD bonds are due for a setback.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
Mexico: The Future Remains Bright
In the past couple of years, Mexico has been among the favorite markets for investors within the EM space. As our Emerging Markets Strategy team argued in a recent report, the cyclical and structural outlook for Mexican risk assets remains brighter than ever.…
Daily Insights
Egypt Devalues Pound: Time To Get Long?
Our Emerging Market Strategy (EMS) colleagues recommended booking an 11.4% gain on their Egyptian T-bill trade initiated earlier in the year. Now that currency-devaluation risk has been removed from the picture for the foreseeable future, they are…
Daily Insights
US January JOLTS Report: Persistent Resilience
The US January JOLTS data released yesterday was in line with expectations, with job openings clocking in at 8.86 million versus a downwardly-revised 8.89 million in December. Importantly, US job openings are likely to continue trending lower in February…
Daily Insights

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