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Geopolitics

Tariff D-Day

Trump's Tariff D-Day brings a negative surprise to financial markets already anxious over a declining US cyclical economy. Investors should sell risky assets, increase safe havens, and overweight US assets in the near term.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
April 2: Peak Trade Tensions?
Markets may be bracing for April 2, but the real surprise could be how unsurprising it ends up being. Our Chart Of The Week comes from GeoMacro Chief Strategist Marko Papic, who sees the looming tariff salvo as the peak of de-globalization panic. With Beltway…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Geopolitical Outlook, Q2 2025

Stocks will continue to struggle in the second quarter as President Trump tries to implement tariffs. Tax cuts will only temporarily dispel growth fears, if at all. Middle Eastern instability will add oil price surprises to an environment that is looking fairly stagflationary.

Geopolitical Strategy, US Political Strategy by Matt Gertken
An Unsustainable Europe/US Divergence
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Mathieu Savary, Chief Strategist of our European Investment Strategy service. Mathieu believes the recent outperformance of European over US risk assets is unlikely to last over the next 3-6 months.  Markets are…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Long Europe/Short US: Too Far, Too Fast
Our tactical framework highlights how financial conditions and economic surprises interact, where growth often sows the seeds of its own demise. Markets price expectations efficiently but lack perfect foresight, making data surprises key to price action.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Understanding Trump's Foreign Policy

Trump’s foreign policy can be explained by rational US interests, but it requires settling the trade war with allies sooner rather than later. Book gains on EUR-USD for now.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
A Key Risk For The Global Economy
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Arthur Budaghyan, Chief Emerging Markets/China strategist. Arthur highlights a key risk for the global economy, and its implication for the US dollar. By and large, the US economy has been the only source of global…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
What Will Hold Trump Back?
In light of President Trump’s address to Congress and the ebb-and-flow of tariff announcements, our Geopolitical strategists assessed the constraints on the administration’s disruptive agenda. Trump’s ability to implement his agenda is strongest in early…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
What Will Hold Trump Back?

Trump will pull back from the trade war when stocks approach bear market territory. He will not withdraw from NATO. Favor European stocks on fiscal policy.

Geopolitical Strategy by Matt Gertken
Trump Chaos: Double Down On Defensives
Our Geopolitical strategists received a lot of client questions following rapid US political developments, and addressed them in their latest report. US policy uncertainty is spiking, driving global uncertainty higher. Tariff implementation in March and…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier

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