Global
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, intra-market repricing will offer investors a unique opportunity to enter the industrial real estate space in the next two years. In the short term, Mexico will be a big winner…
This report looks at the likely path for the dollar and bond yields over the next 6-to-12 months.
The European Commission voted to impose tariffs of up to 45% on imports of Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The announcement follows previous tariffs imposed on Chinese EV imports back in June. This new round of economic sanctions will only have a minor…
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, CAPEX does not appear to be especially broad-based even among the largest companies in the US. The enclosed chart presents a bottom-up estimate of CAPEX as a percent of sales for the S&P…
The JPM Global manufacturing PMI declined at an accelerating pace in September (49.6 to 48.8). Moreover, international trade flows deteriorated notably with the new export orders component falling from 48.4 to 47.5. A sector breakdown underscores broad-based…
Western policymakers are pursuing three capital “T” Truths: China is evil, climate change is a major risk, and Russia is… also evil. Pursuing all three priorities at the same time presents a version of the classic “impossible trinity.”
The Fed embarked on a new easing cycle with a bang and China delivered its largest stimulus since 2015, leading to a strengthening in the risk-on soft-landing narrative in September. Chinese and EM equities led the pack. We highlighted that Beijing’s…
The market got excited by the 50 bps Fed cut and China stimulus. But these are a recognition that economies are slowing significantly. Stocks often rally after the first Fed cut, before falling sharply. Investors should stay defensive.
Our expectation that a looming US recession will morph into a global recession remains intact. US monetary easing will only take effect with a lag and current deteriorating economic conditions are the product of past easing. Meanwhile, China’s…