Global
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy Service, China has been accumulating high-value memory semiconductors in anticipation of further US restrictions. Since October 2022, the US has been tightening rules that would limit China’s progress…
There has been a decoupling within the global semiconductor industry. Demand for AI and advanced chips has been booming. Yet, sales of legacy and non-AI semiconductors have failed to recover. Given their spectacular run-up, share prices of high-end and AI-chip producers might continue selling off even if their sales continue to grow rapidly.
According to BCA Research’s GeoMacro Strategy service, there are two main pressure points that the US can utilize against China. First, the US consumer market is the largest in the world. Despite having diversified away from the US, it remains a very…
The risk-on soft-landing narrative dominated investors’ psyche last month and pro-cyclical assets topped the August return ranking. Asian currencies led the pack by a wide margin, while the dollar was the largest laggard. Markets pricing in an upcoming Fed…
US nominal personal income growth accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3% in July, faster-than-anticipated, whereas personal spending accelerated from 0.3% to 0.5%, in line with expectations. The savings rate edged lower from 3.1% to a 16-year-low of 2.9%. …
Tokyo’s CPI is a timely leading indicator of nationwide price pressures. In August, the headline, core (ex-food) and the “core core” (ex-food and energy) measures all accelerated by larger-than-expected margins, reaching 2.6%, 2.4% and 1.6% y/y, respectively.…
According to our Bank Credit Analyst service, an inflection point in the relative performance of US stocks is not likely to occur over the coming 6-12 months. A recession favors US equities in common currency terms barring substantially less global ex-US…
China has notably diversified its export markets over the past two decades, reducing its dependence on the US and other DM economies and strengthening trade ties with EM nations. Since 2000, shipments to the US have halved (from 30% to 16% of total…