Global
According to BCA Research’s Counterpoint Strategy service, the post-pandemic US economy has inverted from its usual ‘demand-constrained’ state to a highly unusual ‘supply-constrained’ state. This inversion is still a ways from normalizing, with labor demand…
According to BCA Research’s Commodity & Energy Strategy service, oil markets are caught in a tug-of-war that has kept oil prices in a trading range since H2 2023. Bearish demand concerns are enforcing an upper limit on the price of crude while bullish…
During his Jackson Hole speech, Chair Powell dispelled any remaining doubts about a September rate cut. Still, easing monetary policy is unlikely to result in a soft landing. First, recessions have historically started shortly after the Fed began cutting…
Brazilian equities have largely underperformed their EM peers in USD terms since the beginning of the year. Rising public debt and inflation are the two main forces weighing on the Brazilian bourse. Our Emerging Market strategists expect public debt-to-GDP…
European regulatory carbon credits (EUAs) are becoming increasingly investable as an asset class. In a Special Report published last September, our Global Investment strategists agreed to the strategic bull case for EUAs, but highlighted a bearish view on…
Our negative stance on European growth and assets is not devoid of risks. To gauge whether these risks warrant upgrading our growth outlook, we monitor Sweden closely. So, what is the current message from this Nordic economy?
China has become less reliant on exports to advanced economies, and its products have successfully penetrated developing economies. Exports to the US make up 3% of Chinese GDP, while exports to all developing economies account for 10% of its GDP. China’s trade pivot from advanced to developing economies has economic, political, and geopolitical ramifications.
Gold reached new all-time highs earlier this week. The yellow metal has returned a whopping 20.2% YTD, with the rally reaccelerating over the past month. Gold prices are inversely correlated with the dollar, and the expectations for US interest rate cuts have…
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, the logic of pursuing one’s interest against US interests in the final hours of the election mostly applies to states that will suffer a significant loss to their strategic security if the…