Global

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

The US ‘immaculate disinflation’ has run its course, given that labour force participation is topping out. This leaves the Fed with a dilemma. Settle for price inflation stabilising at 3 percent, and cut rates early to avoid higher unemployment. Or, not cut rates early and go the final mile to 2 percent price inflation, at the risk of higher unemployment. We discuss which way the Fed is likely to tilt, and the investment implications. Plus: China is oversold while Japan is overbought.

This report presents the main ways to invest in the Nuclear Renaissance; from exposure to physical uranium to equity plays alongside or outside the nuclear fuel cycle.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.