Global
After a tumultuous year, our Equity Analyzer team took stock on how the BCA Score faired globally. The indices are constructed for each region by selecting the top 10% of stocks with a market-cap above 1 billion USD according to their BCA Score. All indices…
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the recent improvement in global manufacturing and Asian exports will likely prove to be a mid-cycle amelioration rather than a cyclical recovery. Global trade/manufacturing is the key driver…
Australian CPI inflation fell from 4.9% y/y to a 22-month low of 4.3% y/y in November – slightly below expectations of 4.4%. Underlying measures of core inflation also indicate that price pressures eased in November. The rate of growth in CPI excluding…
Taiwan’s December trade data corroborates the signal from other Asian exporters (such as South Korea) that global manufacturing activity is experiencing a mini revival. Taiwanese exports surged by 11.8% y/y last month, surprising expectations of a much tamer…
The Fed faces a dilemma. Cut rates early to avoid a recession, but at the risk of not slaying wage inflation. Or, not cut rates early to ensure that wage inflation is slayed, but at the risk of a downturn. Faced with such a dilemma, the lesser evil is to slay wage inflation even at the risk of a downturn. Meaning that the market has overpriced early rate cuts. We discuss some other investment implications, and identify two rebound candidates.
The commodity complex performed exceptionally poorly last year. Industrial metals and crude oil were among the few major financial assets we track that posted negative z-scores in 2023. Indeed, the 12% drop in the Golman Sachs Commodity Index in 2023 follows…
Following a strong rally in the prior two years, the performance of the US dollar was significantly weaker in 2023. The DXY index ended last year down 0.9%, after gaining 3.3% and 6.4% in 2021 and 2022, respectively. Importantly, the USD weakness was…
The dollar has kicked off 2024 on a tear. The closely followed DXY index bottomed on Thursday December 28th, and has since risen almost 2%. Year-to-date, the only major currency that has held up against the dollar is the Mexican peso, with the yen continuing…
Following today’s US jobs data release, the Joshi rule real-time US recession indicator inched up to 0.18 and is now just a whisker from its recession event-horizon of 0.20.
China’s equity market stands out as a major underperformer vis-à-vis its global peers in 2023. The 13% drawdown in China’s investable stock price contrasts with the 20% rally in the MSCI ACW Index. It reflects the country’s disappointing recovery as…