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Global

The US Approaches Its ‘Event Horizon’

Heading into a black hole, you pass a point of no return known as the ‘event horizon’ after which your impending oblivion is sealed. US recessions also have an event horizon, which we are fast approaching. We reveal a leading indicator of this event horizon, and what it means for investment strategy.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
A Sustainable Improvement In Consumer Confidence?
Easing inflationary pressures as well as a softening of the energy crisis and signs of economic resilience in Europe have led to a rebound in global consumer confidence. Our Global Consumer Confidence Indicator and its diffusion index – which are constructed…
Daily Insights
The 2000-2001 Roadmap
According to BCA Research’s Emerging Markets Strategy service, the sustainability of the equity rally depends on whether corporate profits hold up. It is not unusual for a period of equity gains to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and…
Daily Insights
To Chase Or Not To Chase?

It is not unusual for a period of rebounding share prices to occur between an inflation-driven selloff and a growth scare. Initially, stocks rally on falling inflation and prospects of lower interest rates. Then, worries about corporate profits intensify, and equity prices deflate along with falling Treasury yields. This is what happened in the US in 2000-2001 and is likely to occur in the coming months.

Emerging Markets Strategy by Arthur Budaghyan
An Optimistic Signal From The Global LEI Diffusion Index
BCA’s Global Leading Economic Indicator – a GDP weighed average of the standardized leading indicators of 23 DM and EM economies – has been steadily deteriorating since early-2021. To the extent that this indicator is designed to provide a 6- to 12-month…
Daily Insights
On G10 Commodity Currencies
G10 commodity currencies have generally underperformed their peers recently. Since the beginning of December, the NOK and CAD have weakened slightly versus the dollar. Similarly, the NZD’s and AUD’s gains have trailed most other G10 currencies. Recent…
Daily Insights
Breakevens Take A Break
BCA Research’s Global Fixed Income Strategy service recommends a neutral overall allocation to ILBs in global fixed income portolios. At the country level, go underweight Italian and French inflation-linked bonds. The upside for inflation breakevens (and…
Daily Insights
Inflation No Longer Generating Big Surprises
Inflation Surprise Indices have come down from stratospheric levels across DM economies, indicating that inflation figures are surprising by smaller margins. The moderation is broad-based across the US, Euro Area, UK, and Canada. Indeed, inflationary…
Daily Insights
A Dimmer Housing Outlook Outside The US
BCA Research’s Global Investment Strategy service concludes that the housing outlook is dimmer outside the US. Among developed economies, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the Nordics are the most vulnerable. There are good reasons to think that the…
Daily Insights
The Housing Downturn: Could This Time Be Different?

While the housing downturn will be fairly mild in the US, it will be more severe abroad. Continue to favor bonds of countries whose housing fundamentals will limit rate hikes.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin

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