Insurance

Underweight While insurers have enjoyed a knee jerk rally recently, relative share prices remain in a downtrend, and we recommend fading this run-up. House and auto sales have been in contraction for nearly a year, which bodes ill for insurance profits that have already been struggling to keep pace with the broad market (second panel). This is largely reflected in insurance pricing power, which has barely climbed out from outright deflation (third panel). Bottom Line: Decelerating house and auto sales will continue to weigh on insurers’ pricing power prospects. Stay underweight the S&P insurance index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU – CB, MMC, MET, PGR, AON, PRU, AIG, AFL, TRV, ALL, WLTW, HIG, AJG, PFG, CINF, L, LNC, RE, AIZ, GL, UNM. ​​​​​​​

Underweight Stocks in the S&P insurance index have been mostly treading water since their collapse at the beginning of 2018, a result of reasonably solid premium growth and low catastrophe losses offsetting slowing growth in house & auto sales, the fundamental driver of insurers’ top line performance. However, we think another step down in relative performance is in the offing. House & auto sales have been in contraction for much of the past six months, which bodes ill for insurance profits that have already been struggling to keep pace with the broad market (second panel). This is largely reflected in the momentum of insurance pricing power, which has fallen into outright deflation for the first time since the post-GFC recovery (third panel). While insurers have seen a modest valuation contraction (bottom panel), the very slight discount does not offset the significant headwinds to future earnings. Bottom Line: Decelerating house & auto sales have caused insurers’ pricing power to fall off a cliff while valuations have proven, at least temporarily, more resilient; stay underweight the S&P insurance index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU – CB, MMC, MET, PGR, AON, PRU, AIG, AFL, TRV, ALL, WLTW, HIG, AJG, PFG, CINF, L, LNC, RE, TMK, UNM.      

  Underweight A seldom considered victim from the slowdown in both the housing and auto markets is the top lines of property & casualty insurers. Relative growth of insurers and home & auto sales have typically shown a reasonably strong correlation and the four-year long deceleration of both overlap (second panel). This is confirmed by the rapid slowdown in insurers’ pricing power which has recently fallen into outright deflation, its worst performance in more than five years (third panel). A confirming anecdote comes from industry bellwether Travelers’ Q4 results released earlier this week which saw their combined ratio (the ratio of losses and costs to premiums) rise 2% to 97.5% as premium growth failed to offset increased expenses. Meanwhile, and despite the flat line in the relative performance of insurers (top panel), the S&P insurance index has rerated since the mid-summer lows. Accordingly, a narrative of bargain shopping in insurance equities does not yet appear plausible. Bottom Line: The bear market for insurers is not over yet; stay underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU - AIG, CB, MET, MMC, PRU, TRV, AFL, AON, ALL, PGR, WLTW, HIG, PFG, L, CINF, LNC, XL, AJG, UNM, TMK, AIZ, RE, BHF.  

  Underweight Since downgrading the insurance group to underweight nearly two years ago, we have been on the lookout for signs the environment had at least moderated; this has not been the case. Pricing power has recently started to accelerate to the downside which, when combined with flattening demand in the key home & auto markets, bodes especially negatively for insurer profits (second & third panels). Critics of our bearish view on insurers may point out that rising interest rates (a key BCA theme for this year) should reinforce sagging stock prices. While there may be some partial offsetting profit benefit to higher rates, the correlation between the S&P insurance index and the UST yield has clearly broken down this year (bottom panel), indicating the market believes the negatives outweigh the positives; we concur, particularly as we enter the historically volatile hurricane season. Stay underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are BLBG: S5INSU - CB, AIG, MET, MMC, PRU, TRV, AFL, AON, ALL, PGR, WLTW, HIG, PFG, L, CINF, LNC, XL, AJG, UNM, TMK, RE, AIZ, BHF.  

Underweight While we continue to recommend a core portfolio overweight in the S&P financials index, the S&P insurance sub-index remains our sole underweight. Unlike its financials brethren, the insurance industry is defensive rather than cyclical and thrives when the economy is slowing. Currently, the U.S. and global economies are expanding above trend and, under such a backdrop, investors have historically avoided insurance equities. The top panel of our chart drives this point home. Over the past four decades the greenback and relative share prices have been positively correlated. The U.S. dollar peaked in December 2016 and since then it has been goosing global output, and simultaneously weighing on insurance stocks. Similarly, a rising 10-year Treasury yield reflecting improving economic growth also anchors insurance stocks (10-year Treasury yield shown inverted, second panel). While higher interest rates are positive for investment portfolio income, they also imply mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios. Higher interest rates also incent insurers to underwrite at a faster pace with more lenient standards, which is often a precursor to increased competition and diminishing pricing power, eventually sapping profits. Bottom Line: We reiterate our underweight stance in the S&P insurance index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU - AIG, CB, MET, MMC, PRU, TRV, AFL, AON, ALL, PGR, WLTW, HIG, PFG, L, CINF, LNC, XL, AJG, UNM, TMK, AIZ, RE, BHF.

Highlights Portfolio Strategy Reviving global machinery end-demand alongside a global capex upcycle, are the key pillars of our high-conviction overweight call in the S&P construction machinery & heavy truck index. The current macro backdrop is unforgiving for defensive insurance stocks. Leading indicators of pricing power warn that softening prices coupled with expanding headcount will weigh on insurance profits in the coming quarters. Recent Changes There are no changes to our portfolio this week. Table 1 Feature Equities moved laterally last week and continued to consolidate the early-February tremor, unimpressed by better than expected profit growth across the board. The SPX has been oscillating in a 10% range over the past three months and has been a trader's (and bank's) paradise. There are high odds that this trading range will stay in place and the market will churn until the summer before breaking out (Chart 1). Chart 1Breakout Looming? Nevertheless, the anemic equity market response to solid earnings is slightly unnerving. Soft EPS guidance and perky input cost inflation are two thorny issues revealed this earnings season. With that in mind, we have identified three key brewing equity market headwinds: EPS growth deceleration toward 10%. Rising interest rates. U.S. dollar reflex rebound. Chart 2Monitoring The Correlation 20% profit growth is this cycle's peak rate, and we have been flagging in recent research1 that, beneath the surface, investors are slowly starting to revise expectations lower toward the 10% growth projection for calendar 2019 EPS. Simultaneously, interest rates continue their ascent and may cause some consternation in stocks. Not only does a higher discount rate weigh on valuations, but also the Fed's tightening cycle will eventually slam the brakes on the economy, with housing and the consumer feeling the higher interest rate knock-on effects most intensely. As we highlighted recently,2 we are closely monitoring the correlation between stocks and the 10-year Treasury yield and looking out for a collapse into negative territory to signal an economic (and market) choke point (Chart 2). Finally, recent ECB and BoJ chatter of easy monetary policies for as far as the eye can see, may have put a floor on the greenback, at least temporarily, with the Fed going it alone and lifting the fed funds rate into 2019 and beyond. While all three headwinds suggest that the market may have trouble breaking out of its funk in the next few months, on a cyclical 9-12 month horizon we remain upbeat on equity return prospects. Any U.S. dollar advance is likely a bear market rally and will take time to filter negatively through to earnings. Rising interest rates are also a consequence of higher economic growth which is a positive, i.e. real rates are rising alongside inflation expectations. And, if the SPX attains 10% EPS growth in 2019 as we expect, that is an above trend EPS growth rate and twice as high as nominal GDP growth, an impressive feat at this stage of the cycle. This week we are updating our SPX target to 3,200. We first came up with our SPX end-of-cycle target last July using three different methods:3 a traditional dividend discount model (DDM), EPS and multiple sensitivity analysis and forward equilibrium equity risk premium (ERP) analysis. As a reminder, this 3,200 SPX level is a peak number before the next recession hits and Table 2 summarizes our updated results (if you would like to receive the excel spreadsheet with the three models so you can tweak our inputs/assumptions please click here). In our DDM, our discount rate assumptions remain intact and very conservative. We use an up-to-date annual dividend per share number and back out dividends in U.S. dollars via the updated SPX divisor and make a conservative assumption of no buybacks in the coming years. The recession-related 10% dividend cut has moved to 2020, in line with BCA's view. Finally, we rolled over our estimates to 2023 resulting in a roughly 3,200 SPX peak value estimate. Our EPS and multiple sensitivity analysis starting point is $191 EPS in 2020 (this is in line with the sell-side bottom up estimate according to IBES data) and a 16.5 multiple. That equates to an SPX ending value of near 3200. Table 2SPX Target Using Three Different Methods With regard to the ERP analysis (Chart 3), our forward ERP equilibrium remains at 200bps. 2020 EPS come in at $191, and we also pencil in 100bps selloff in the bond market, resulting in an SPX 3,200 estimate. Chart 3ERP Has Room To Fall This week we are updating a high-conviction overweight call in a deep cyclical index, and reiterate a below benchmark allocation in a financials sub-index. The CAT Is Roaring, Is The Market Listening? Early last October we upgraded the S&P construction machinery & heavy truck (CMHT) index to overweight, and two months later we added it to the high-conviction overweight call list. On January 29th, right after the broad market hit its all-time highs, we managed to book impressive 10% relative gains as we introduced a risk management tool and instituted trailing stops to the high-conviction calls that cleared the 10% relative return mark. Subsequently, we reinstated the S&P CMHT index to the high-conviction overweight call list, at a deflated price point, as our constructive cyclical backdrop never wavered. Currently, our thesis remains intact: reviving global machinery end-demand alongside a global capex upcycle are a harbinger of sustained profit outperformance. While some leading indicators of global growth have recently crested, global output will remain brisk and above trend. When global growth is expanding, machinery demand typically demonstrates its high beta characteristics. Our global machinery exports proxy is firing on all cylinders rising to multi-year highs and sell side analysts have taken notice: S&P CMHT net earnings revisions are as good as they get (bottom panel, Chart 4). Encouragingly, the softening dollar suggests that U.S. exports have the upper hand and are grabbing market share. BCA's global machinery new orders proxy corroborates the trade data and underscores that machinery profits will overwhelm (middle panel, Chart 4). Dissecting global machinery demand is revealing. Importantly, previously moribund Chinese loan demand has reversed course and is now gaining traction. Tack on the recent steep fall in interest rates and factors are falling into place for a durable pick up in Chinese machinery consumption. Indeed, hypersensitive Chinese excavator sales continue to expand at a breakneck pace (Chart 5). Elsewhere in Asia, highly-cyclical Japanese machine tool orders likewise defy gravity vaulting to fresh all-time highs (Chart 5). The commodity complex also confirms the enticing global machinery end-demand backdrop. The broad commodity index in general and crude oil prices in particular have been reaccelerating of late. The energy space is a key end-customer for the machinery industry and $75/bbl global oil prices have reignited a fresh drilling cycle (Chart 6). Chart 4Global Machinery End-Demand Is Upbeat... Chart 5...And Asia Is Leading The Pack Chart 6Commodities Give The All Clear Sign Even the U.S. machinery demand backdrop is vibrant. The V-shaped recovery in U.S. machinery order books remains intact. Fiscal easing is reviving animal spirits and CEOs are voting with their feet: overall capital outlays are rising at a healthy clip, positively contributing to GDP growth, with machinery fixed capital formation growth recently clearing the 20%/annum hurdle (Chart 7). Capex intentions according to the regional Fed surveys are also holding near recent cyclical highs, and were Congress to pass an infrastructure bill that would be an additional boon to machinery top and bottom line growth (Chart 7). On the domestic operating front, machinery factories are humming and given that capacity is contracting, the industry is regaining its pricing power footing (Chart 8). The upshot is that this high-operating leverage industry should continue to enjoy outsized profit gains. Chart 7Even U.S. Machinery Demand Is Firming Chart 8Operating Metrics Flashing Green Nevertheless, there are two key risks to our otherwise bullish machinery thesis that we are closely monitoring. First, input costs are on the rise both in terms of labor and raw commodities (bottom panel, Chart 9). If the industry fails to pass this input cost inflation down the supply chain, then a margin squeeze is likely. Second, and most importantly, a hard landing in China would put our constructive machinery view offside, but we assign low odds to a gap down in Chinese economic activity (middle panel, Chart 9). Finally, given the recent consolidation phase, the S&P CMHT index has a valuation cushion as per the neutral reading in our relative valuation indicator. Similarly overbought conditions have been worked out and our technical indicator is also hovering near the neutral zone offering a compelling entry point to commit fresh capital (Chart 10). Chart 9Two Risks To Bullish View Chart 10Compelling Entry Point Bottom Line: We reiterate our high-conviction overweight call in the S&P construction machinery & heavy truck index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5CSTF - CAT, CMI, PCAR. Insurance Expiry Notice While we continue to recommend a core portfolio overweight in the S&P financials index via the banks (high-conviction), asset managers and investment banks sub-indexes, the S&P insurance index remains our sole underweight. Unlike its financials brethren, the insurance industry is defensive rather than cyclical and thrives when the economy is slowing. Fairly stable, recurring and, most of the time, predictable revenue streams are sought after attributes when economic growth is scarce. Currently, the U.S. and global economies are expanding above trend, the global capex upcycle is running at full steam and CEOs and consumers alike exude confidence. Under such a backdrop, investors have historically avoided insurance equities. Chart 11 drives this point home. Over the past four decades the greenback and relative share prices have been positively correlated. The U.S. dollar peaked in December 2016 and since then it has been goosing global output, and simultaneously weighing on insurance stocks. Similarly, a rising 10-year Treasury yield reflecting improving economic growth also anchors insurance stocks (10-year Treasury yield shown inverted, Chart 12). While higher interest rates are positive for investment portfolio income, they also imply mark-to-market losses on bond portfolios. Higher interest rates also incent insurers to underwrite at a faster pace with more lenient standards, which is often a precursor to increased competition and diminishing pricing power, eventually sapping profits. Chart 11Insurance Is Defensive Chart 12Higher Yields Hurt More Than Help On the pricing front, there seems to be a bifurcated market. Auto insurance pricing is hardening, but home insurance is moving in the opposite direction (Chart 13). The slingshot recovery in auto loans versus residential real estate loans partially explains the big delta in pricing as subprime auto loans excesses have, at the margin, boosted new and used vehicle sales. This is not sustainable and there are high odds that this extra demand will level off in the coming months as the subprime auto credit screws inevitably tighten, eventually dampening car insurance prices. Worrisomely, the latest Fed Senior Loan Officer Survey revealed that not only is demand for auto loans waning, but also bankers are no longer willing extenders of auto related credit. Taken together, momentum in housing and auto sales is nil, warning that insurance top line growth will trail the broad market (Chart 14). Unsurprisingly, relative consumer outlays on insurance remain moribund, and a far cry from the previous cyclical peak, warning that it is premature to expect a valuation re-rating (second panel, Chart 15). Chart 13Margin Trouble? Chart 14Softening Demand Chart 15Insurance Indicator Message: Shy Away With regard to input costs, insurance labor additions continue unabated, trumping overall non-farm payrolls and the broad financial services industry since the GFC trough. Our insurance wage bill proxy is closing in on 4%/annum (bottom panel, Chart 13), warning that a margin squeeze looms. Our Insurance Indicator does an excellent job encapsulating all of these different signals and has recently taken a turn for the worse (third panel, Chart 15), underscoring that the path of least resistance is lower for relative share prices in the coming months. Bottom Line: We reiterate our underweight stance in the S&P insurance index. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU - AIG, CB, MET, MMC, PRU, TRV, AFL, AON, ALL, PGR, WLTW, HIG, PFG, L, CINF, LNC, XL, AJG, UNM, TMK, AIZ, RE, BHF. Anastasios Avgeriou, Vice President U.S. Equity Strategy anastasios@bcaresearch.com 1 Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, "Bumpier Ride," dated March 26, 2018, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 2 Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, "Reflective Or Restrictive?" dated March 12, 2018, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. 3 Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report, "SPX 3,000?" dated July 10, 2017, available at uses.bcaresearch.com. Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor value over growth Stay neutral small over large caps (downgrade alert)

Special Report

Dear Client, Today we are sending you a two-part Special Report prepared by my colleague Billy Zicheng Huang of our Emerging Markets Equity Sector Strategy team, entitled “A Sector Guide To A-shares”. Part I of the report was published in September, and emphasized the key takeaways from MSCI’s decision to include A-shares in the MSCI EM index beginning in June 2018. More importantly, it provided a comprehensive analysis of the financials, industrials, consumer discretionary, and consumer staples sectors. Part II of the report was published at the end of October, and provided an analysis of the remaining sectors not included in Part I. The reports underscore that while the top-down impact of MSCI’s decision is limited, it is significant in terms of expanding potential alpha from security selection. I trust that you will find this report to be useful. Best regards, Jonathan LaBerge, CFA, Vice President Special Reports The EMES team will be publishing a series of Special Reports in the coming weeks, analyzing sector dynamics and company highlights of Chinese A shares that MSCI has decided to include in the MSCI EM index from next June. In the first part of our report, we emphasize the key takeaways from A-shares' inclusion, followed by a comprehensive analysis of the four sectors that investors will probably most focus on. The second part of our report to be released in the coming weeks will analyze the remaining sectors. MSCI's decision to include Chinese A shares will likely have only a limited near-term impact on the market from a passive investment perspective. A 5% inclusion factor will not cause significant changes to the current sector weightings of the MSCI EM index or the MSCI China index. The symbolic effect - that global investors are becoming more confident in the Chinese market's efficiency and transparency - is likely to have a larger impact. From an active investment perspective, however, an expansion of the investable universe will give investors with EM mandates more opportunities to allocate assets and generate alpha. Impact Is Limited On A Macro Perspective... On June 20, MSCI announced its decision to include Chinese A shares in the MSCI EM index and the MSCI ACWI index on a gradual basis starting from June 2018.1 The inclusion process will be finalized in two steps following the May semi-annual index review and August quarterly review in 2018, at a 5% inclusion factor. Full inclusion of the remaining A-share universe is expected to take place gradually over five to 10 years. After three previous proposals of an A-shares inclusion having been rejected by investors surveyed by MSCI, the successful start of the inclusion process signifies that the A-share market is gaining broad support from institutional investors. This follows the Chinese government's and regulators' focus on improving market accessibility via stock connect programs (Hong Kong-Shanghai connect, and Hong Kong-Shenzhen connect) as well as improving market liquidity via loosening requirements for index-linked financial instruments. Further steps regarding capital movement and better reporting standards are expected to be implemented in due course. influence of the inclusion is minimal from a broad market perspective. As is planned, 222 A-share companies will be added to the MSCI EM index, accounting for a pro-forma weight of only 0.73% of the MSCI EM index, or 2.5% of the MSCI China index (Charts 1A and 1B). A shares will boost China's weight in the MSCI EM by approximately only 1%, given the 5% inclusion factor. Sector-wise, it will not substantially move the current weights of each sector either. Company wise, all selected stocks are large caps, with 43 being "A" and "H" dual-listed companies already included in the current MSCI EM index, mostly concentrated in the financials, industrials and materials sectors (see Appendix I). This means the inclusions are unlikely to make any meaningful contribution to index performance in the upcoming year. Similarly, capital inflows from passive fund trackers are expected to be negligible, only marginally adding to the trading income of the Hong Kong Exchange through the northbound stock connect program. refore, we believe the impact from an investor perspective is more symbolic, confirming a positive outlook on market transparency and corporate governance. ...But Significant In Stock Selection Despite immaterial near-term market impact, the 222 A-share large-cap stocks will expand the investable universe, providing active investors with plenty of opportunities to extract alpha. In particular, compared to the current weights of the 11 sectors, industrials, financials, consumer staples, materials, healthcare, utilities, and real estate would see weight expansion, while IT, telecom, energy, and consumer discretionary would see weight contraction (Table 1). Newly added stocks mainly come from the financial and industrial sectors, with the name count by far outpacing other sectors. Given an overall larger market cap, these two sectors will experience the most substantial incremental weight boost under the full inclusion scenario. However, this does not mean sectors with fewer companies to be added are negligible. Instead, liquidity in these sectors is expected to improve significantly, with specific stocks drawing strong interest from investors. Since the launch of BCA's EMES service, we have made several calls on A-share stocks as out-of-benchmark plays, including Yutong Bus (600066 CH) and Tianqi Lithium (002466 CH) from our best-performing trade, overweight the lithium supply chain. In this vein, in this Special Report we will identify and analyze four sectors that we believe are most investment-relevant. A second Special Report examining the remaining sectors will follow in the coming weeks. Financials Some 50 companies from the financials sector will be included in the MSCI EM index, with a strong tilt toward brokerage firms (27). The rest will be split between banks (19) and insurers (4). Banks The equally weighted basket of 19 A-share banks has underperformed the MSCI EM index year to date by 13.4%, and underperformed by 11.6% over a one-year period (Table 2). In absolute return terms, however, performance has been resilient across various time horizons. It is worth mentioning that the "big five banks" are all listed in both mainland China and Hong Kong. Therefore, investors will focus more on joint-stock banks and regional banks in the A-share universe, which makes analysis on shadow banking activities within the earnings profile crucial. In terms of valuation, stripping out dual-listed banks that already exist in the MSCI EM index, Huaxia Bank and CITIC Bank are trading below their book values, displaying relatively cheap valuations. Looking at profitability, three regional banks top the earnings profile: Bank of Guiyang, Bank of Ningbo, and Bank of Nanjing, while the two "cheapest" banks, Huaxia and CITIC, display the lowest ROE (Charts 2A & 2B). From a profitability versus valuation perspective, companies such as Huaxia Bank, Industrial Bank, Bank of Beijing and Pudong Development Bank offer a superior risk-reward profile (Chart 3). Bank of Guiyang and Ping An Bank report the highest net interest margins, but pay a relatively low dividend yield. On the other hand, Industrial Bank and Bank of Beijing have the lowest net interest margins, but relatively high dividend yields (Charts 4A & 4B). In terms of asset quality, Bank of Nanjing and Bank of Ningbo report the lowest NPL ratios, both under 1%, while Pudong Development Bank and Ping An Bank are at the top of the table. Meanwhile, Bank of Nanjing and Bank of Guiyang show the most robust loan growth, while Bank of Shanghai and Huaxia Bank suffer from the most sluggish loan growth (Charts 5A & 5B). Therefore, on a two-dimensional measure, we prefer Bank of Nanjing, and Bank of Guiyang (Chart 6). Screening the earnings forecast, Bank of Guiyang and Bank of Ningbo are expected to see the fastest growth in two years, while CITIC Bank and Ping An Bank will see the slowest growth (Chart 7). Diversified Financials The equally-weighted basket of 27 diversified financial companies has underperformed the MSCI EM index year to date by 26.5%, and by 27.8% over a one-year period (Table 3). Currently there are only nine diversified financial companies in the MSCI EM, with seven securities companies and two state-owned asset management companies specializing in distressed asset management. As mentioned, the inclusion of A shares will not improve brokerage fees dramatically in the near term, but this milestone event could trigger a positive outlook on market sentiment, especially for the broad A-share market, where the dominant players are retail investors. This could explain the subsector's resilient performance over the past three months. Therefore, it is reasonable to be bullish on diversified financials, with the largest securities names expecting a revenue boost in the longer term. Some pure A-share names include Shenwan Hongyuan, Guosen, and Avic Capital. Similar to banks, after stripping out dual-listed names already included in MSCI EM (CITIC, Everbright, GF, Haitong, and Huatai), Northeast Securities and Guotai Junan Securities have the cheapest valuations, while Anxin Trust seems to be the overpriced compared to its peers. Accordingly, its ROE is remarkable (Charts 8A & 8B). Taking both dimensions into account, Guotai Junan Securities and Northeast Securities display attractive risk-reward profile (Chart 9). Looking at the top line, performances diverge across various securities companies. Pacific and Guoyuan generate the highest net interest margin, while Orient and Northeast suffer from serious top-line contraction (Chart 10A). Meanwhile, Guoyuan and Anxin score the highest dividend yield, exceeding 2%, while Sinolink pays less than a 0.5% dividend yield (Chart 10B). Looking at the earnings forecast, Western Securities, AVIC Capital and Sealand Securities are expected to see the strongest bottom-line growth in 2018, while local securities companies Shanxi and Huaan rank at the bottom of the spectrum (Chart 11). Insurance The following four insurers are already constituents of the MSCI EM index: China Life, China Pacific, New China Life and Ping An. The equally weighted basket has outperformed the MSCI EM index year to date by 12.4%, and outperformed by 21.2% over a one-year period (Table 4). We will not analyze the subsector in much detail, given none of them are pure A-share companies. As such, market impact from the inclusion will not be material. EMES has been overweight Ping An's H shares since August 9, 2016.2 Industrials There are 44 companies in the industrials sector, the second-largest name count after financials. This sector is also expected to make the greatest impact on sector weights, assuming full A-shares inclusion. Stocks in the sector are split between airlines, national defense, machinery, construction and transportation. The equally weighted basket has underperformed the MSCI EM index year to date by 20.5%, and by 22.8% over a one-year period (Table 5). We believe increasing construction activity boosted by the 'One Belt, One Road' initiative will drive sales growth of construction equipment, while disputes in the South China Sea, India, Tibet and Xinjiang autonomous districts will continue to boost the defense industry. Air China, Southern Airline, China Communications Construction, China Railway Construction, China Railway Group, China State Construction Engineering, CRRC, Weichai Power, and COSCO are excluded from our analysis, as their H-listed shares are already in the MSCI EM index. Looking at valuations, the trailing P/E varies significantly across companies. Defense stocks in general are more expensive compared to other industries. By contrast, Daqin Railway stands on the lowest end of the P/E ranking, while electrical equipment companies normally display lower valuations (Chart 12A). Looking at the profitability side, Yutong Bus, one of our overweight calls, leads the ROE ranking, while Zoomlion lies on the lowest end by registering a net loss (Chart 12B). In summary, Yutong Bus, Chint Electrics, Gold Mantis and Beijing Orient Landscape will likely outperform, based on a valuation versus profitability profile comparison (Chart 13). Furthermore, the EV/EBITDA forecast for 2017 coincides with our overweight call on national defense stocks. It is worth noting that Eastern Airline would likely see unsatisfactory growth in terms of firm value (Chart 14A). Shanghai International Airport, Tus-sound Environment and Beijing Landscape rank as the top three measured by operating margin, while XCMG Construction Machine displays a negative margin, despite excavator sales in China surging year over year (Chart 14B). In terms of dividend and free cash flow, Yutong Bus and Zoomlion score highest on dividend yield, and Sany Heavy Industry, Daqin Railway, and XCMG secure highest free cash flow yield. On the other hand, Sany and other (check) defense stocks generate the least in dividend yields, and more than half of the companies post negative free cash flow yield (Charts 14C & 14D). Investors should be cautious on airline companies with negative free cash flow, such as Eastern Airline and Hainan Airline. Looking at leverage, Shanghai International Airport and AECC Aero-engine Control have the lowest debt-to-equity ratio, while Power Construction and China Eastern Airline are highly leveraged (Chart 14E). Last but not least, looking at expected growth profile, XCMG is forecast to see the highest bottom-line growth, driven by growing demand for excavators, while China Eastern Airline and Zoomlion are expected to suffer from negative growth (Chart 15). Consumer Discretionary Some 26 names from the consumer discretionary sector will be added to the MSCI EM index. Stripping out Fuyao Glass, BYD, Guangzhou Auto, and Haier, which are already included in the index, there are still six automakers and auto components manufacturers to be included. This should provide investors with enough investable stocks for an auto industry play. Furthermore, six A-share media companies will be added to the index over a one-year period (Table 6). Sector performance has been overall disappointing, with some exceptions being CITIC Guoan Information, Chinese Universe Publishing, Wanxiang Qianchao and China International Travel. Regarding valuations, CITIC Guoan Information, Suning Commerce and Alpha Group are the most expensive, with trailing P/Es surging above 50, while two automakers (SAIC and Huayu) along with a travel agency (Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town) are relatively undervalued in the sector. From a profitability perspective, Robam Appliances and Midea Group generate solid ROE, while CITIC Guoan Information and Sunning Commerce dominate the other end of the spectrum (Charts 16A & 16B). Taking these two factors into consideration, we highlight Robam Appliances, Midea Group, and Xinhua Media as the most attractive (Chart 17) based on a risk/reward profile. Investors should be cautious on Suning Commerce, not only from a fundamental perspective but also because its acquisition of Inter Milan is unlikely to generate synergy amid the Chinese government's tightening of rules on overseas M&A in the entertainment and leisure industries. Looking at the income statement, Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town displays robust operating performance, matching its high valuation. Robam Appliances and China South Publishing follow suit. By contrast, Suning Commerce suffers from negative margins (Chart 18A). When comparing free cash flow, Midea Group and China South Publishing register the highest yield, while Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town, Gran Automotive Service, and CITIC Guoan Information have negative yields (Chart 18B). Meanwhile, autos and auto components manufacturers enjoy the highest dividend yields, such as SAIC Motor, Huayu Automotive System, Weifu High-Tech, and Grand Automotive Service (Chart 18C). With respect to leverage, the media industry normally displays the lowest D/E ratio, seen in firms such as China Film, Xinhua Media and China South Publishing. On the other hand, auto and auto component manufacturers as well as large retailers are highly leveraged (Chart 18D). Based on our criteria, Guoan Information and Robam Appliances are expected to see the fastest bottom-line growth, while Xinhua Media, Wanxiang Qiaochao, and Xinjiekou Dept.'s bottom lines would remain stagnant (Chart 19). Consumer Staples Currently only nine Chinese consumer staples constituents are included in the MSCI EM Index. After the inclusion, 14 more companies will be added, substantially expanding the investable universe. Two subsectors will most likely draw investors' attention: food producers such as Yili and Henan Shuanghui, as well as beverage producers, especially premium liquor producers such as Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin and Yanghe Brewery. The equally weighted basket has underperformed the MSCI EM index year to date by 19.6%, and by 11% over a one-year period (Table 7). The sector has not deviated much from the EM benchmark across the selected time horizon. In particular, premium liquor manufacturers have been the main contributor to overall sector performance. Their sales are expected to experience a seasonal peak in September and October during the Chinese mid-autumn festival and National Day. Both Wuliangye Yibin and Moutai announced robust top-line and bottom-line growth in their second-quarter financial results, largely beating market expectations. Stripping out the one dual-listed name already in the MSCI EM index (Tsingtao Brewery), Changyu Pioneer, New Hope Liuhe, and Shuanghui display attractive valuations, with trailing P/Es under 20. On the other end of the metrics, Yonghui Superstores, and Luzhou Laojiao are the most expensive (Chart 20A). Examining profitability measures, Shuanghui and Moutai top the ROE rank, while Bailian Group and Yonghui Superstores sit at the bottom of the rank (Chart 20B). Looking at risk/reward profile, it is noticeable that Shuanghui, Yili and Yanghe Brewery are well positioned (Chart 21). In terms of operations, premium liquor makers reported overall strong operating margins, led by Moutai and Yanghe Brewery, while Bailian Group and New Hope Liuhe stand at the other end of the spectrum (Chart 22A). Looking at the capex-to-sales ratio, Wuliangye and Shuanghui score the best measures, driven by strong sales with less capex. While Changyu Pioneer demonstrates a much higher ratio compared to all peers (Chart 22B), this can be partially explained by its high capex requirement, as it is the only wine maker in the sector. Nonetheless, we believe its top line is expected to be under downward pressure as the wine market in China becomes increasingly competitive, and as premium products from France, Australia, and the U.S. gain easier market access through not only traditional in-store sales but also authorized e-commerce platforms like JD.com. Similarly, free cash flow measure also indicates that Changyu Pioneer is the only liquor player that suffers from negative yield (Chart 22C). In terms of financial position, with the exception of COFCO Tunhe Sugar, all companies in the sector display reasonable levels of leverage (Chart 22D). Looking at top-line growth, sales forecasts in FY2017 are more in favor of Moutai, Dabeinong Technology, and Luzhou Laojiao, but less in favor of Bailian Group, Shuanghui, and Changyu Pioneer (Chart 23A). Moreover, when looking at bottom-line growth two years out, Luzhou Laojiao and Yonghui Superstores score the highest rankings, while Changyu Pioneer and Shuanghui are at the other end of the spectrum (Chart 23B). In summary, among food producers, we are inclined to overweight Shuanghui. Among beverage producers, we like Yanghe Brewery, and Wuliangye, but are avoiding Changyu Pioneer. What's Next? We will highlight the following sectors in part 2 of our Special Report: Materials, energy, IT, telecoms, healthcare, and real estate. Billy Zicheng Huang, Research Analyst billyh@bcaresearch.com Appendix - I Appendix - II Overweight Company Profile Underweight Company Profile 1 For the full MSCI press release, please visit: https://www.msci.com/eqb/pressreleases/archive/2017_Market_Classification_Announcement_Press_Release_FINAL.pdf 2 Please see EM Equity Sector Strategy - Investment case "China Healthcare, Getting Healthier", dated August 9, 2016, available at emes.bcaresearch.com

Underweight Late-2013 saw all the right economic conditions moving in favor of insurers: the economy was entering a soft patch, the yield curve was flattening and the U.S. dollar was gaining momentum. The insurance market began hardening and the industry went on a hiring spree to capitalize on a much improved outlook (second panel). With the exception of the yield curve, those macro conditions reversed in 2017; the economy is booming, the dollar bull market has paused and BCA expects at least a modest yield curve steepening in the coming months (third panel). However, the insurers index has performed in line with the broad market so far this year (top panel). The hard pricing market of the past three years has recently turned flaccid (bottom panel) and organic revenue growth should soften. Meanwhile, sector employment remains elevated, implying weakening margins. In the context of the S&P 500 growing earnings by low-double digits, the insurers index should underperform. Stay underweight. The ticker symbols for the stocks in this index are: BLBG: S5INSU - AIG, CB, MET, MMC, PRU, TRV, AFL, AON, ALL, PGR, WLTW, HIG, PFG, L, CINF, LNC, XL, AJG, UNM, TMK, AIZ.

Highlights Portfolio Strategy The latest wobble in the financials sector is a buying opportunity, with the exception of the defensive insurance index. Our tactical overweight in utilities has played out. Take profits and downgrade to neutral. Weak beverage operating metrics argue for a reduction in premium valuations. We recommend a full downgrade from overweight to underweight. Recent Changes S&P Utilities - Downgrade to neutral, locking in gains of 1% on this tactical position. S&P Soft Drinks - Downgrade to underweight. Table 1 Feature The S&P 500 remained undaunted in the face of a geopolitical firestorm last week. Instead, vibrant global growth and easy monetary conditions continue to underpin investor confidence in the durability of the earnings upcycle. Our thesis remains intact: a recovery in top-line growth, powered by both volume and pricing power gains, will generate sufficient profit growth to sustain the equity market overshoot. While actual inflation has surprised to the downside, weighing on inflation expectations (bottom panel, Chart 1), this has not translated into a loss of business sector pricing power. Corporate selling prices have diverged markedly from the Fed's preferred measure of inflation (middle panel, Chart 1), reflecting a goldilocks scenario where more restrictive monetary conditions will not impede the path to improved profitability. In recent research we showed that operating leverage in S&P 500 constituents runs at 1.4x. In other words, a 5% increase in sales results in a 7% rise in operating EPS, based on our regression analysis. While every cycle is different, when revenues initially recover from a slump, as is currently the case, operating leverage can be even higher, with profits often outpacing sales by two or even three times. Since mid-December, both the U.S. dollar and 10-year Treasury yields have fallen in tandem. As a result monetary conditions have eased, reversing the tightening that occurred in the second half of 2016. Our U.S. Monetary Indicator (USMI) and momentum in corporate profit margins are perfectly inversely correlated. The recent downswing in the USMI is bullish for S&P 500 margins (USMI shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 2). True, a fall in bond yields can also be reflective of a deteriorating economy, such that investors should become worried about profitability. However, the stock-to-bond (S/B) ratio is not signaling any trouble ahead. History shows that the time to worry about the bond market's earnings message is when the S/B ratio contracts (see shaded areas, third panel, Chart 3). Chart 1Corporate Pricing Power Reigns Chart 2Easy Financial Conditions Boost Margins Chart 3Goldilocks Equity Scenario In addition, part of the decline in long-term interest rates also reflects a slower expected pace of fed funds rate increases. The bond market doubts the FOMC's 2.125% interest rate estimate for 2018, forecasting a fed funds rate roughly 63bps lower. If the bond market is accurate and the Fed recalibrates its 18-month rate outlook even modestly lower later this week, then the S/B ratio has more upside. This week we reiterate our recent financials sector upgrade to overweight, make two tweaks to our portfolio and downshift our defensive exposure another notch. Financials Are At A Critical Juncture Financials stocks have performed as if the U.S. economy is headed for a protracted slowdown, or even recession. Uncertainty with the U.S. Administration's ability to pass bills and enact reforms, a string of U.S. economic disappointments and related yield curve flattening, and sinking inflation expectations have all weighed on relative performance. Rather than extrapolate recent weakness, our inclination is to view the latest wobble as a buying opportunity. A number of forward looking loan growth indicators suggest that credit and capital formation are on an upward trajectory, which will support ongoing profit outperformance. Chart 4 shows that our U.S. capex indicator is an excellent leading indicator of loan growth, with a forty year track record. Soaring confidence implies a more expansionary mindset, and increased demand for external funds (third panel, Chart 4). Similarly, the ISM survey leads loan growth. Both the ISM manufacturing and services surveys are sending a positive signal (fourth panel, Chart 4). Specifically, our sister U.S. Bond Strategy's credit growth model captures all of these positive forces: the recent nascent recovery in bank credit growth should morph into a sustained recovery in the second half of 2017 (bottom panel, Chart 4). Meanwhile, financial conditions have continued to ease, aided by tightening credit spreads, a decline in oil prices, U.S. dollar softness and rise in equity prices (top panel, Chart 5). Easier monetary conditions should ensure that the recovery in overall corporate sector profits stays on track, thereby sustaining both consumer and corporate credit quality at high levels. It is notable that relative performance and the Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index are positively correlated (second panel, Chart 5). Credit quality is already showing signs of improvement: financials sector ratings migration has swung roughly 50 percentage points since last October (second panel, Chart 6). The implication is that reserve building should not become a profit drag over a cyclical investment horizon. Chart 4Credit Growth##br## Will Pivot Chart 5Easy Monetary Conditions ##br##Are A Boon For Financials Chart 6Financials Catch-Up##br## Phase Looms In sum, as long as the global economic expansion persists, as we expect, then the recent inflation expectations-related selloff in the sector should prove transitory. We continue to recommend above-benchmark exposure to areas with leverage to increased capital formation, with one notable exception in the sector's most defensive component: insurance. Continue To Avoid Insurers While financial companies levered to capital formation and credit creation are well positioned to thrive if the U.S. and global economies continue to improve, the same is not true for the broad S&P insurance index. This is a defensive group with a fairly stable recurring revenue stream that typically thrives when the economy is slowing, the yield curve is flattening and the U.S. dollar is on an upward trajectory. Relative performance has edged higher in concert with the recent yield curve flattening, but as detailed above, we don't expect the latter to continue. Ergo, the only external support for the group is likely to crumble, especially now that the U.S. dollar is softening (Chart 7). If the domestically-focused insurance index could not gain traction throughout the latest U.S. dollar bull market, what will happen if a mild currency depreciation occurs? Based on its own merits, the insurance industry likely heads toward a profit soft patch. The ebb and flow of overall business activity drives revenue growth, particularly in the interest rate-sensitive auto and housing sectors. Chart 8 combines sales growth for the latter two sectors into one series, which has recently slipped into negative territory, warning of a similar fate for insurance top-line growth. Consumer spending on insurance products is also contracting relative to total spending (Chart 8), corroborating the cautious message from housing and autos. There are also cracks forming in pricing power. The CPI for motor vehicle insurance remains robust, but that of household tenants insurance has sunk into the deflation zone. If the hard market turns soft, it will further undermine underwriting premium growth. To make matters worse, insurance companies have been on a hiring binge for the past several years. Headcount exploded higher beginning in 2014, and continues to make new highs. Rising cost structures coincided with the downturn in insurance book value growth (Chart 9). Book values have recently started to shrink, with little prospect for a reversal unless labor costs ease and/or underwriting activity revives. As a result, our preference is to focus exposure on non-insurance financials, as insurance remains a high-conviction underweight. Chart 7'Dollar ##br##Trouble' Chart 8Pricing ##br##Power Blues Chart 9Beware The Bull Market ##br## In Insurance Employment Book Profits In Utilities In early-April we upgraded the S&P utilities sector to a tactical (1-3 month) overweight courtesy of five key drivers that have now largely played out.1 As a result, we are booking profits of 1% and downgrading to a benchmark allocation. The U.S. economy is on the cusp of a capex revival. While Q1/2017 GDP growth was unduly weak, investment spending was a bright spot. Our U.S. Capex Indicator has accelerated sharply, signaling that investment should continue to gain traction. Historically, business spending and utilities relative performance have been inversely correlated (the Capex Indicator is shown inverted, top panel, Chart 10). Similarly, the composite ISM export index has recently catapulted to the highest level since the late-1990s. Should the U.S. dollar continue to depreciate, U.S. exporters will remain busy filling foreign orders. That is a relative performance drag for the domestically-exposed utilities sector (ISM exports shown inverted, bottom panel, Chart 10). Meanwhile, electricity production growth has crested and natural gas price inflation has rolled over, suggesting that pricing power gains have peaked (Chart 11). The implication is that there will be no earnings follow through to support the recent breakout attempt (third panel, Chart 12). Chart 10Capex Revival Is Bearish For Utilities Chart 11Soft Demand With Weak Selling Prices Chart 12Why Pay Up For Lack Of EPS Follow Through? Importantly, the total return of the bond-to-stock ratio continues to contract. While both stocks and bond prices have risen in tandem of late, persistent stock market outperformance warns that flows into this fixed income proxy will soon peter out (Chart 12). Thus, in the absence of an earnings acceleration, it will be difficult to sustain premium valuations (bottom panel, Chart 12). In sum, utilities leading profit indicators have crested and all five of the driving forces behind our tactical overweight recommendation have largely transpired. Bottom Line: Execute the downgrade alert and book 1% profits since our tactical overweight of the S&P utilities sector, initiated in early-April. Time To Liquidate Beverage Stocks Consumer staples equities in general and beverage stocks in particular have been stellar outperformers this year. Nevertheless, this strength may prove fleeting in the absence of a revival in relative profit fortunes. Since the mid-1990s, relative performance has followed the ebb and flow of relative forward profit estimates. However, a gap has opened, as analyst estimates have continued to drift lower as share prices have climbed (top panel, Chart 13). The gravitational pull from fading earnings confidence may be too powerful to overcome over the next six months, given that our leading profit indicators have all taken a decisive turn for the worse. There is a rising risk that premium valuations will normalize (bottom panel, Chart 13). Instead, household products and packaged foods stocks offer a better risk/reward tradeoff. The biggest risk that we first identified in March centers around beverage shipments. The top panel of Chart 14 shows that industry shipments have plunged on the back of anemic end-demand. Shipment weakness is cause for concern given the correlation with relative performance. Chart 13Mind The Gap Chart 14Beverage Deflation... Our beverage industry activity proxy confirms this bearish message: relative profitability is under attack (middle panel, Chart 14). Worrisomely, soft drink manufacturers have tried hard to arrest the fall in shipments via steep price concessions (third panel, Chart 14). Even price deflation has been unable to reverse the contraction in industry volumes. If S&P soft drink sales continue to soften on the back of both volume and price cuts, then profit margins will take a hit (third panel, Chart 15). True, input cost inflation remains well contained, as both ethylene and raw food commodity prices are non-threatening. Moreover, labor cost inflation is subdued. Still, history shows that deflation typically leads to a margin squeeze. There is some hope that the export relief valve may partially neutralize soft domestic consumption. Consumer goods exports have contracted, but the depreciation in the U.S. dollar, especially against emerging market (EM) currencies, provides a glimmer of light that a turnaround lies ahead (third panel, Chart 16). But we are reluctant to forecast an export resurgence, given that EM consumption growth has continued to ease. Chart 16 shows that beverage sales growth closely follows the trend in real Asian retail sales, and the current message is bearish. Chart 15Mind The Gap Chart 16Do Not Bet On An Export-Led Recovery Adding it up, leading indicators of beverage demand remain muted (second panel, Chart 16), at a time when industry price deflation has intensified. This is a toxic brew for profitability, and we recommend using recent outperformance and sell down positions to underweight. Bottom Line: Downgrade the S&P soft drinks index to underweight. 1 Please see BCA U.S. Equity Strategy Weekly Report "Great Expectations?", dated April 3, 2017, available at uses.bcaresearch.com Current Recommendations Current Trades Size And Style Views Favor small over large caps and stay neutral growth over value.