Japanese Yen

Amid patchy global growth, the US economy remains resilient. However, tight monetary policy will eventually trigger a recession in the US too. The stock market rally has been very narrow. Stay underweight risk assets.

In this week’s report, we release an update to our long-term REER valuation model and expected future returns for major currencies.

This week’s report explores factors behind the recent rise in the dollar, and whether this could continue in the next month.

When will the US also buckle under high rates? We expect a US recession to begin around mid-year. Stay defensive.

We look at the implications for FX from the slew of central bank meetings this week.

In light of the hotter-than-expected US CPI report, we look at what interest rate currency investors should focus on. Our conclusion largely keeps our existing trades in place, as published in our outlook, a few weeks ago.