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Manufacturing

China PMIs Undershoot as Deflation Pressures Persist
The July PMIs and inflation data confirm that China faces a persistent low-growth, deflationary backdrop, with weak demand and tariff risk warranting defensive equity positioning. The Caixin manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while services ticked up at 52.6.…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
How Has Global Growth Fared In The Face Of Tariffs?
In response to trade uncertainty, global growth is cooling but not collapsing, supporting a cautious near-term view on risk assets. Trade disruption earlier this year raised fears of a global recession, but the data so far point to deceleration, not…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Peter Berezin’s Thoughts Of The Day: Moar Dealz

We will only move to a fully defensive stance if the “whites of the recession’s eyes” appear. So far, they have not. We will be increasingly looking to our MacroQuant model for guidance on when the next turning point in markets may come.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
Tariffs, Input Costs, And The Shifting US Inflation Mix
The July Dallas Fed survey beat expectations, pointing to a rebound in current activity, but the outlook remains subdued, supporting our modestly defensive asset allocation. The headline index rose to 0.9 from -12.7 in June, with production jumping 20 points…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Flash PMIs Improve, But Low Growth And Trade Frictions Persist
July DM flash PMIs point to improving global growth momentum led by services, but manufacturing remains weak and upside is limited, reinforcing our defensive stance. Services PMIs improved in the US, Europe, and Japan, but slowed in the UK. Manufacturing…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Stronger Philly Fed Momentum Not Enough Without Labor Confirmation
The July Philly Fed beat expectations with broad improvement in activity, but low growth, inventory buildup and margin pressure remains a risk for equities. The headline index rose to 15.9 from -4.0 in June. New orders, shipments, and employment all…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Empire Fed Beats, But Signal Too Noisy To Shift Positioning
The July Empire Fed beat estimates, but survey volatility, inventory distortions, and shallow strength dampen this signal.  The headline index surged to 5.5 from -16.0, supported by gains in shipments, employment, and capex intentions. However, new…
Daily Insights by Felix Vezina-Poirier
One Big Beautiful Basket
Special Report

Despite macro headwinds, the OBBBA clearly favors Industrials, Financials, and Consumer Discretionary equity sectors. A carefully constructed, factor-aware basket in these sectors is well positioned to outperform in a fiscal-driven, uncertain environment. 

US Political Strategy, Equity Analyzer, US Equity Strategy by Max Malakhveitchouk, Guy Russell
Too Early To Sound The All Clear

We will abandon our recession call if US economic data show clear signs of stabilization over the summer months. For now, that has not happened. Maintain a modest underweight to stocks but look to get more defensive if MacroQuant’s equity z-score falls below -1.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
The Asian Export Outlook Remains Dismal
The latest data on Asian exports and manufacturing suggest that the global trade outlook remains downbeat. Korean exports in USD terms grew in June by 4.3% y/y. The three-month moving average is 2.2%. Assuming Q2 export shipments were boosted by frontloading…
Daily Insights by Arthur Budaghyan

Related Topics

Business Cycles Capex Consumer Corporate Economic Growth Government Inflation/Deflation Labor Market Productivity Recession-Hard/Soft Landing See more Topics