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Monetary

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The ECB Signals A June Rate Cut

At today’s monetary policy meeting, the ECB gave strong hints that rate cuts will begin as soon as the next meeting in June. In this Insight, we share our thoughts on today’s meeting and discuss the implications for European bond yields and the euro.

Global Fixed Income Strategy, Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US Headline PPI Softer Than Expected
Thursday’s US Produce Price Index report for March shows headline PPI came in below expectations on both a month-over-month (0.2%) and annual (2.1%) basis. Meanwhile, PPI ex food and energy came in at 0.2% m/m (in line with expectations), and 2.4% y/y(above…
Daily Insights
ECB: Mark Your Calendar For June
As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In its statement, the ECB reiterated that most measures of underlying inflation were easing, wage growth was moderating, and firms were absorbing the rise in labor costs…
Daily Insights
Currency Implications Of A Dovish BoC
In terms of interest rate bets, markets are now roughly neutral on whether the Fed or Bank of Canada move the most in the next 12 months. BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service’s bias is that it will be the BoC (with more cuts).  Thus, a…
Daily Insights
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The Market Implications Of A Dovish BoC

In this insight, we calibrate our investment views based on the latest Bank of Canada decision.

Foreign Exchange Strategy, Global Fixed Income Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
US CPI Inflation Comes In Hot
Headline inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.5% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.4% respectively. Meanwhile core inflation came in at 0.4% on a MoM basis and 3.8% on an annual basis, beating expectations of 0.3% and 3.7%…
Daily Insights
Stay Tuned For BoC Rate Cuts
The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 5% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. In his opening remarks following the announcement, Governor Tiff Macklem was cautiously dovish:  “We don't want to leave monetary policy this restrictive longer…
Daily Insights
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Hot CPI, But Maybe Also A Buying Opportunity In Bonds

Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift
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Recap Of Investment Themes

Fears of a hard landing are abating as growth has been surprising to the upside. New worries are emerging, such as the trajectory of disinflation, and the pace and timing of rate cuts. In this environment, it is important to build a resilient all-weather portfolio, which protects against a correction, rising rates, or stubborn inflation but also has exposure to the AI theme.

US Equity Strategy by Irene Tunkel
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The US Labor Market Is Still Hot

Our reaction to this morning’s employment report and bond market moves.

US Bond Strategy by Ryan Swift

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