Policy

The post-Brexit rebound has pushed stocks into overbought territory. U.S. equities, in particular, look increasingly priced for perfection. Higher U.S. rate expectations will push up the dollar, further curbing S&P 500 profit growth. Share buyback activity and dividend growth are slowing, while U.S. election risks are likely to rise. Go short the NASDAQ 100 futures as a tactical hedge.

A Fed rate hike by December could erode the slowly evolving fundamentals favoring base metals.

Investors are being forced into riskier asset classes by the TINA effect, but the gaping macro disequilibria makes it difficult for investors to see how we move back to equilibrium in a benign way. Monetary policy on its own is limited in its ability to soften the adjustment, but the good news is that the political pendulum is swinging toward fiscal stimulus.

We put the odds of a Fed rate hike this year at slightly better than 50/50. But in the event of a rate hike, any sell-off in risk assets will be relatively short-lived and not as severe as the sell-off that followed the initial rate increase last December.

The lack of inflation makes a Fed rate hike before December unlikely. In the interim, the continued flow of liquidity could sustain the high-risk rally.

Brazilian risk assets have rallied on the back of investor optimism about the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff. But the political games have just begun. With all politicians looking to the October municipal elections and 2018 general elections, the Michel Temer administration is unlikely to impose fiscal and structural reforms. Debt dynamics are set to worsen, and we continue to short Brazilian equities.

True inflation rates in the euro area and in the U.S. are actually not that different, making the polarized divergence in expected monetary policy very difficult to justify.

In lieu of our regular report, we are publishing a <i>Special Report</i> titled "Five Myths About Chinese Politics" authored by our <i>Geopolitical Strategy</i> team, offering insight on the Chinese leadership and the political situation.

The 10-year Treasury yield's post-crisis pattern suggests that a monetary policy catalyst is required to spur a material increase of around +100bps or more. In this <i>Special Report</i> we do a survey of the major developed market central banks to assess whether any could possibly incite such a "bond tantrum" during the next six months.