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US Dollar

August In Review
Global financial markets relapsed in August. After a relatively strong performance in June and July, most of the major financial assets we track generated below average returns last month as investors shifted their focus to the risk of a “no landing” scenario…
Daily Insights
A New Currency Regime?
According to BCA Research’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service much of the new BRICS+ countries lack the fundamental basis of making a credible monetary union. A reserve currency needs the military might to control the trading routes necessary to maintain…
Daily Insights
A New Currency Regime? Don’t Bet On It Just Yet

In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.

Foreign Exchange Strategy by Chester Ntonifor
Where Things Stand

Stocks should continue to rally in the near term, but investors should prepare to turn more defensive towards the end of the year in advance of a recession in 2024.

Global Investment Strategy by Peter Berezin
French Luxuries Trump US Technology

The stock market’s pre-eminent growth sector is not US tech, it is French luxuries. No other sector can compare with French luxuries’ massive and sustained pricing power. The risk for French luxuries is not a China slowdown, the risk is that the structural increase in super-wealth comes to an end. If anything though, the coming disruption from generative AI will boost super-wealth. Ironically therefore, the best investment play on generative AI might be French luxuries.

Counterpoint by Dhaval Joshi
Return Assumptions 2023 Edition – A Bit Higher For Bonds, A Bit Lower For Equities
Special Report

A global portfolio is likely to return only 5.3% a year over the next decade, compared to 6.7% in the past. Investors either need to lower their return expectations, or take more risk. Our total return methodology remains consistent with previous editions, with changes limited to the Alternatives section.

Global Asset Allocation by Felix Vezina-Poirier
Portfolio Flows And The Dollar
Since July, the DXY index is up 4.5% from the lows. On a broader trade-weighted basis, the Federal Reserve’s measure of the nominal dollar is up 2.9%. The usual suspects for dollar strength have been weakness in global export/manufacturing sectors, which have…
Daily Insights
China-Related Assets: Not Yet Priced For A Further Slowdown In China
The above chart illustrates the BCA Market-Based China Growth Indicator, which is made up of 17 series grouped into four asset class subcomponents: currencies, commodities, equities, and rates/fixed-income. The purpose of the indicator is to act as a broad…
Daily Insights
Will MXN Remain Resilient?
The Mexican peso is the best performing major currency so far this year, gaining 14% vis-à-vis the greenback over this period. Even during the latest bout of dollar strength since mid-July, MXN has weakened by the least among its peers. This follows an…
Daily Insights
Beware Geopolitical Risk
According to BCA Research’s Geopolitical Strategy service, investors should stay overweight low-beta assets. Geopolitical risk is likely to stay elevated in Asia Pacific in the coming months. Mainland China faces debt-deflation, poor governance, and a…
Daily Insights

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