Earnings Bonanza

Earnings versus everything else has been an apt description for the macro backdrop during the conflict with Iran. Earnings growth has been red hot, but the Middle East was a mess, oil and other energy-related costs soared, bond yields surged and money markets priced in a central bank U-turn from cuts to hikes. Earnings have carried the day to this point, and we think the equity market has been right to follow them.

 Doug discussed the events that could shift the narrative while keeping tabs on the following key drivers:

• The labor market
• Consumption
• Inflation
• Monetary policy
• AI investment
• Portfolio positioning over 3- and 12-month timeframes