Portfolio Special Report

2025 GAA Capital Market Assumptions: Revamped

Lucas Laskey, Strategist Xiaoli Tang, Associate Strategist Chen Xu, Research Analyst Juan Manuel Correa, Head of Portfolio Construction

Asset Allocation Market Returns BCA Indicators/Model

Published on

29 Aug 2025

We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and to alternative assets.

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